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Afternoon Note

Bumpy Start

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
1/2/2025 1:10 PM

Major indices were heading higher at the open but moderated throughout the day. The Russell 2000 leading the way up, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are lower.

The move in yields are weighing on major indices. The 10-year note rate (TNX) moved up close to 4.60%, after scraping 4.51% earlier.

Moreover, The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its rise higher. We mentioned a few days earlier this is a red flag and could harm Trump’s policy goals.

Only two indices are in the green, Energy (XLE) is the leading sector, followed by Utilities (XLU). Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is the laggard, followed by Technology (XLK).

The Energy sector is up in tandem with oil prices, which are up 2.64%.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 last month and above the preliminary estimate of 48.3. Output fell at the fastest pace in 18 months driven by a drop in new orders caused by resistance to commit to new projects ahead of expected policy changes under the next administration.

Construction Spending stalled at 0% m/m change in November, down from a 0.5% increase in October, and missing estimates of a 0.3% increase. Private spending and the residential segment moderated from the prior month but still saw expansion; however, this was offset by a reduction in public and non-residential spending.

Earlier this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came to 211k, missing consensus of 221k, and below last weeks’ numbers. The results aligned with the view the labor market remains tight, reinforcing the idea rate will remain higher for longer.


 

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