It was another lackluster session, with more than 60% of components finishing lower yesterday. Overall, market breadth improved, but new lows continue to dwarf new highs (a good gauge of the market's pulse).

Dark Clouds Gathering

Consumer confidence came in at 81.9 against a consensus of 89.0. It's the lowest reading since 2014.

Confidence among the three oldest generations—Gen X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation—continued to weaken. Confidence fell in September across all political affiliations—Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

Consumers are crying, "Uncle," and I can only hope that members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have the same wisdom as New York Fed President John Williams.

“Super” Super Intelligence Gathering

President Trump brought together the biggest players in technology for an AI summit. Judging from all the comments and jovial atmosphere afterward, I think the event was a hit. The White House is holding the line on AI hysteria. Trump promises people will love data centers and vows America will maintain its global lead. Key topics and milestones:

• The "SI" Rebrand

• Self-Regulation and a "Morally Binding" Agreement

• Proposed Oversight Committee

• Upcoming AI Czar

• Data Center Infrastructure

Key players signed an accord focused on individual company responsibility.

During the session, we learned that OpenAI's new annual recurring revenue (ARR) has rocketed to $70 billion.

Micron at the Plate

Micron Technology (MU) reports after the close. While everyone expects a historic quarter - one of the most profitable in corporate history - the big question is: how much longer can the party last?

The stock has rallied three times out of the last four earnings releases.

Memory margins can't get any higher; the question is whether they will move meaningfully lower. I don’t think so.

Today’s Session

Good news on the inflation front.

Headline PCE came in at 3.4% against a consensus of 3.7%.

Core PCE climbed 0.2% and 3.0% month over month and year over year.  The Street was looking for 0.3% and 3.3%, respectively.

Personal income climbed 0.3% while spending soared 0.8% and 0.6% when adjusted for inflation.  That's the biggest monthly spike since March 2025.

It’s a huge testament to the overall economy, which has been weighed down by nonstop doom and gloom and higher gasoline prices.

This comes at the expense of savings, but there is a huge wealth effect from the stock market and, to a lesser extent, from home prices, which have mostly held up.

Market Pivot?

If history proves to be an accurate guide, today could mark the turn in the stock market.  Right now, futures are acting well.

Comments

Almost all of the negative is political main stream Trump haters doing what they can to kill the economy in my opinion! Tom Sanders on 9/30/2026 11:26:17 AM

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