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Morning Commentary

RISING TIDE

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/16/2026 10:01 AM

Yesterday was another solid session for the market. This year, it seems like cyclical, or defensive sectors are on top in each session, even when the major individual gainers are in growth sectors.

It was mid-caps that led the most success across the board.

Breadth & Heat Map

The same tide continues to lift all ships, especially in small-and mid-cap names.

Advancers

NVIDIA (NVDA) stands out most on the Heat Map, but a weakness in software should also be noted. Industrials (XLI) look like a field on the first day of spring – lots of green shoots.

S&P 500 Map

Too Ebullient?

Wall Street mavens hate it when retail is too bullish. Too bad. I love it.

Image

The Greed & Fear Index hints at a lot more room on the upside.

Continued improvement in economic data, as the Philly Fed saw a good print in the current situation.

New orders stand out most, but employment data is moving in the wrong direction.

Today’s Session

The AI Bubble crowd just took another hit (they don't care, like all bears, they will be right one day, and all the gains dumb money made, they pray would have vanished - but sadly, the financial media won’t stop doing their bidding) after a legend in the technology world bought eight million shares of stock at these levels.

Meanwhile, the AI trade continues to expand, and suddenly, Wall Street has discovered space stocks.

But maybe the most intriguing development is more of the street admitting this year that the economy could be bonkers, even serious critics of the current administration.

With three Fed members speaking today, the good news is that a strong economic backdrop means less need for FOMC fuel.


 

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