Given the depth of Thursday's decline, Friday's bounce was uninspiring. Only 36% of the S&P 500 (SPX) traded higher. One problem is the unwinding of leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Leverage feels great on the way up, but can be devastating on the way down, accelerating pullbacks.

Last week, the S&P 500 was down 2.68%, but the average stock was down 1.09%, and 368 constituents outperformed the broad index. But it didn’t feel a lot better.

Tech Bounce

Technology (XLK) dominated the top advancers list, with some of 2026's hot names trying to reignite their individual rallies.

Interestingly, Coherent Corp. (COHR) topped the list, but Lumentum Holdings, Inc. (LITE) and Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) have continued to struggle since announcing their merger. I’m not sure it would make a difference, but I would seriously be considering scratching the whole thing if I were LITE. Some chip names bounced, which is encouraging, but the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) still has a long way to go, and it crashed below the 200-day moving average.

                 

Broad Market

The S&P 500 typically begins to make its post-election ascent at this time, but the artificial intelligence (AI) wild card is complicating that move. The index held right at its 200-day moving average, which could invite buyers, especially if there is an early and persistent bid in the morning. 

Valuations

It almost feels useless to discuss valuations anymore, as the “cheapest” stocks remain the most vulnerable, but everything is down substantially, and that has to attract buyers at some point.

Neoclouds to the Rescue?

The AI trade was in trouble before the midterm election results, partly because of the weakness of a key neocloud player: CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV).

CRWV & NBIS in the Batter’s Box

These names have been hammered, but this week there will be two chances to assess their value proposition and, by default, assess the overall upside for the AI trade. These names are not the leaders, but they can offer insight that could fend off the bears. 

Today’s Session

This morning is all about gossip and geopolitical intrigue.  I’m sure everyone has read about the Jensen Huang affair and all the speculation about his fate at Nvidia (NVDA).

Right now I think Jensen stays on, but there are real questions about why this news is out now when lots of people knew, and what damage has been done, if any.

Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu explains why he thinks the US seized on the scandal to draw its sword:

He points to three strategic objectives.

How did China get banned NVDA chips, and how much did the C-suite (Jensen) know?

The AI Show Goes On

Morgan Stanley (MS) is out with a report: hyperscaler spending goes to $1.6 trillion in 2027 and $1.8 trillion in 2028.

Here are other reports:

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