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Morning Commentary

A Strong Start to the Week

By John Jean, Senior Research Analyst
9/22/2026 9:36 AM

Yesterday was broadly positive, with decliners centered in Energy (XLE) on oil prices and in defensive sectors, while Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) were at the top of the leaderboard.

Market breadth was solidly positive, with advancers outpacing decliners on both exchanges and up volume swamping down volume, particularly on the Nasdaq, where it ran more than three to one.

Today’s Session

Stocks are set for a breather with futures flat following yesterday’s strong performance with energy prices and yields being lower for a second consecutive day.

Alibaba (BABA) announced what the company calls China's most powerful AI chip, which will compete directly with Nvidia (NVDA). As a result, chip names are mixed pre-market.

Oil erased its gains of as much as 2% after news that Iran has proposed to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US blockade is lifted. Trump is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly later today, with investors watching for a possible meeting with his Iranian counterpart.

Economic News

ADP preliminary weekly hiring for the four weeks ending September 5th bounced again to +80k. The 4-week moving average rose for a third week, the strongest since mid-June.

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Comments
Trump will not win the Iran war BECAUSE HE IS UNABLE TO DEFEAT THE IRGC. Suffice it to say
iran WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON---YEARS DOWN THE ROAD----because the IRGC
WILL STILL EXIST. They are like cockroaches. YOU NEVER BET RID OF THEM. Some are beginning
to say---THE IRGC---is in charge. I have been saying it for months.

James G. Williams on 9/22/2026 10:53:43 AM
What is it about the Iran conflict that confuses people? The U.S. has complete air superiority - we can fly over Iran and bomb at will. We control the movement through the Strait of Hormuz. I was wrong about the timing and duration of the conflict, but the outcome has never been in doubt. This will end when Trump determines that a deal with the IRGC is not worth pursuing, and when a takeover of the government by the Iranian people is unlikely. He has delayed the final strike because he preferred not to kill a bunch of innocent Iranians in the destruction of the IRGC, but he will choose that strike in the end. And that end is very, very near.



Steve Fifer on 9/22/2026 11:41:48 AM
 

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