Now and then, a gentle tide comes in that is not too abrasive, but strong enough to lift all ships. That was yesterday, when equities, crude oil, crypto, gold, and bonds moved higher.

Sectors

Only five of eleven sectors finished higher, led by Energy (XLE). Software (IGV) continues to catch bids in the same sessions where semiconductors are higher, even as "AI will eat everything" fears ebb and flow.  

Yesterday, Accenture (ACN) offered comments that put the obsolescence of consulting, data, and software on hold for now.

Heat Map

All eyes were on Micron Technology (MU), which opened under a fair amount of pressure and then began to turn around. It was the drum major in the semiconductor parade.

Computer hardware posted another strong performance, and Industrials (XLI) looked especially strong.

Market Breadth

Advancers eased ahead of decliners, but up-to-down volume wasn’t much to write about, and new lows are replacing new highs.

The former continues to dwarf the latter. It's bear market stuff. I see lots of experts guessing on the next hot place to be and buying stocks like Nike (NKE) because of the carnage. Still, no matter how low the share price is, the company must show life.  All the action is in the AI story, and while the names are very volatile, they are worth the ride.

Factors

All factors were green, with mid-cap momentum attracting the most buyers. It's clear that bottom-fishers and value investors are picking their spots, and they love quality at a much higher level than it is now; hence, its performance goes up and down the scale.

Bond Yields Pause

The bond yield (TNX) freight train peaked briefly, and even pulled back. Meanwhile, Transportation (TRAN) exhibited some life, but needs to clear the 200-day moving average to attract more aggressive buyers.

The market continues to knock on the door of “extreme fear.”

Today is jobs day – the question is whether the number will beat the consensus. There is no doubt labor has improved this year.

Today’s Session

The September jobs report came in below consensus, and prior months were revised lower.

• Private Sector: 46,000 consensus 81,000
• Average Hourly Earnings +3.0% consensus +3.1%
• Labor Force +485,000
• Construction +11,000
• Manufacturing +9,000

I was hoping for a better number, but we really won’t know how good or bad it is until a year from now, which is why the Fed must stop making what amounts to snap decisions because their information is too faulty.

On that note, bond yields are falling, and the odds of a rate hike this month are dropping.

Comments

Something that puzzles me around the importance around the Fed rate decision, and how it had more to do with the past control of inflation vs. the current scenario. It once, long ago, was the driving force around mortgage and other fix rate loan offerings. Now it appears that they are playing second fiddle to those, who offer inflated rates above and regardless of the eventual changes in Prime. In the aftermath of the mortgage meltdown, every credit card issued/offered was converted to variable from fix. Do they really think that they can control inflation, by increasing the rate charged to those already carrying over balances at 20-25+% MoM? It no longer works that way. Sorry, but any mention of Accenture (The spin off from Authur Anderson, just prior to its collapse.), still harbors bad feeling with me personally around how they manipulated their way into the company I once worked for, around promoting a joint tech/programming marketing venture around the development of a product application, supposedly with promises. Which in the end, had no real chance of ever becoming viable. Terry Dowler on 10/2/2026 11:38:48 AM

I'm with Charles on fed deciding anything based on long dated backward looking stone age metrics especially productivity enhancements due to SI. The only accurate reading of this and most / all government numbers is corporate profits whcih are on fire. Buy any pullback tune out the noise Mark Schneeberger on 10/2/2026 12:49:41 PM

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