I think everyone was bracing for a harsher outcome during yesterday's session. It was a bifurcated market, but that’s been a key characteristic for months – the lack of correlation, or negative correlation, which sees advancers and decliners revolve around each other like orbiting suns.

Software (IGV) shone yesterday, while semiconductors struggled (see table), and soon it will flip.

Tech Gets Dirt Cheap

Not only did Technology (XLK) post remarkable earnings, but the sector offered the most robust guidance of any by far.

Tech needs chips, which are sitting on the wrong side of the 50-day moving average. A close above 13,000 for the Semiconductor Index (SOX) is probably the technical catalyst to power a retest of the all-time high.

The Fed in Focus

There is a greater than 95% chance of a rate hike tomorrow, and yet I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold pat.

Be that as it may, the real action will be in the Summary of Economic Projections.

Clarity Act

The odds of the Clarity Act finally passing have improved after a White House compromise. I think stablecoins will play a major role in our economy, so this would be a huge step in the right direction.

Today’s Session

The stock market is opening unchanged, but the bias remains to the downside as factors beyond fundamentals have dominated trading.

1. FOMC rate hike
2. AI Doomsday Campaign

Meanwhile, Bank of America, probably the most bearish of the large firms, just upped its growth outlook through 2030 for semiconductors to 18% CAGR from 14%.

The ten-year yield champing at the bit to move higher and diesel at record levels keep pressure on the market as well.

Empire Fed Survey

The manufacturing boom is holding but has begun to struggle. New orders were down sharply, while prices paid and received edged higher.

Comments

I am not surpised by your comment that the Fed may not raise rates and I agree. I think Warsh is brilliantly updating the measuring tools for real time and not backward looking guesswork of the past and doing it in a way that builds consensus and ownership in a new better Fed. I believe he will sell holding due to the primary driver of higher rates is tied to energy/Iran being the primary outlier to most other rates dropping and a multitude of positive factors like AI productivity, a manufacturing boom and potential for deflation in the future. C. Raymond Weldon on 9/15/2026 10:03:21 AM

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