Thursday was another sluggish day, but also another session that could have been a lot worse.

There weren’t many places to hide yesterday, but there was compelling action in highly visible and important names.

Mag Seven

There is a great scene in the “Blues Brothers” movie where they are getting the band back together.

It feels like “Mag Seven” is trying to get back together as well. Nvidia (NVDA) was up most of the session, but slipped into the close. Other chip names showed spunk. However, SpaceX (SPCX) soared on the day, with 7% of insider stock unlocked.

This morning, it's all about the jobs report and, more importantly, the reaction to it. The number has been trending lower, but the Street is looking for 85,000, up from 57,000, and a 4.2% U-3 unemployment rate.

Fed Watch

The headline number gets all the ink, along with the U-3 unemployment rate, although the U-6 unemployment rate is more informative.

I’m always watching for participation – I like seeing people hit the bricks (or search for clicks these days) to find a gig.

The number that matters most to me is wages. I’d like to see wages rise. Interestingly, over the past 80-year period, climbs in labor share of nonfarm business income have coincided with the start of recessions.

I find it fascinating that higher wages might be a major deciding factor in the Fed's decision to hike rates. Perhaps they’re afraid higher wages will trigger a recession.

Or perhaps their pattern of tamping down the economy at the first sign of better wages is what’s really contributing to recessions.

Today’s Session

The BLS Employment release will be reported as bad news, but it was better than the headline of -23,000 jobs.

The composition of job losses includes the lowest-paying jobs (love seeing workers move up the pay chain) and government, which was a major goal of the administration:

-19,000 Retail

-40,000 leisure and hospitality

-53,000 government

This should quiet the Fed-rate-hike crowd for today.  But there are ulterior motives with the excessive squawking, so they’ll be back at it maybe before the close.

Still, this helps Warsh, and that means it helps the market.

The bigger news is the reaction to this morning's earnings releases – WOW!

Comments

CNBC headline...US Economy Unexpectedly Loss 23,000 Jobs in July The compulsion to deliver news with negative phrasing is undeniable. SMH :( JBG on 8/7/2026 8:38:39 AM

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