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Morning Commentary

TRUTH TELLER

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
4/15/2026 9:41 AM

I love the stock market.

I appreciate it as a truth machine that takes a moment to get it right after initial reactions, driven by algorithms and bias reporting, have been factored out. Then, the worst-case scenarios are baked into the action. In the middle of a “war,” that America is supposedly losing, but the stock market has roared to within a shadow of its all-time high.

The Rate of Change (ROC) has turned sharply higher, along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but I’m still looking for a “thrust signal.”  We need a session where 90% or more of the S&P 500 (SPX) advances on the day. Yesterday, only 57% of components moved higher. Make no mistake, this market is the truth.

Growth in the Driver’s Seat

Growth sectors powered ahead of the pack, and IWF (Russell 1000 growth) is bouncing against IWD (Russell 1000 value) at the same point as last year. It could be the start of something huge!!!

Broadening Rally

Although growth dominated yesterday’s session, there was green across the factor screen.  It's no surprise that momentum also made a noticeable move. Also, the action shifted to large-caps, which are trailing big time in 2026.

In many ways, large-cap and growth are de facto “value trades.”

A broadening rally is always a good sign.

Unleashing Day Traders

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is letting more folks day trade after agreeing to drop a rule inserted in 2021, ostensibly to police the “dumb money” crowd.

All it did was curtail individuals' freedom to approach the stock market as they saw fit.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) led the market on that news, but there was also the stealth rally in Bitcoin (BTC) as well.

Today’s Session

Lots of meandering before the start of trading, but this market is also champing at the bit.

Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are higher after posting results this morning.

The AI Trade is filtering out even more; however, we are seeing action in Neocloud and quantum is coming back to life as well.

Economic data coming in better than expected – again!

Economic Data – US Foundation is Sturdy

Import prices were expected to climb to +2.4%, but instead came in at +0.8%.

Manufacturing

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey was also much better than expected.

Prices are still a concern.

But employment is moving in the right direction.

At some point soon, the action could feed on itself as new highs beget new highs.


 

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