Morning Commentary

Lately, it feels like the market doesn’t have a pulse, which is why it's appropriate for the Fear & Greed Index to be right smack dab in the middle (neutral). But the calm on the surface is masking internal adjustments. Yesterday, Technology (XLK) was one of two sectors to finish in the plus column, and it wasn't much, but there is great action beneath the surface.

Gone Fishing
Most investors will be going fishing this week, but others will be fishing the market for discounts. Yesterday, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Tesla (TSLA), Sandisk (SNDK), and Coinbase Global (COIN) attracted buyers.

Buyers want to make as little noise as possible, knowing that once these names clear hurdles (moving average and key resistance points), alarms will bring in the crowds, even if they’re still on the beach.

Is Momo Ready to Rebound?
There was one small green speck on the factor quilt yesterday. Momentum has taken it on the chin of late, but there are signs the pendulum might be ready to swing back the other way.

I have been railing about leverage for weeks, especially the way it wreaked havoc on Situational Awareness and South Korean investors.
I wasn’t aware of the full retreat from leveraged exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) in the U.S. market, but it helps explain momentum weakness and why some great names with great news have been spinning their wheels.

Manufacturing Renaissance
The Texas Manufacturing Activity Index was a beast in August.
It went from negative numbers in the spring to pedestrian numbers in early summer to a full-fledged juggernaut last month.
This bright spot should last a long time.

There is evidence of the manufacturing miracle in machinery output and Caterpillar (CAT).

September Mourning?
Historically, it's been the roughest month for the market, but September has also put up solid results.
The key is whether the S&P 500 (SPX) limps into the month (trading below the 200-day moving average) or comes in with some swagger.

The market starts this month well above the 200- and 50-day moving averages, with increasing volume, as it approaches a momentum breakout point.

Today’s Session

Once again, headlines from the Strait of Hormuz are weighing on early market action. There are headlines from the G20 as well, but nothing moving the needle much. Government bond yields around the world are edging higher, adding to anxieties.
After closing, there are influential earnings releases:
| Tweet |
| 9/1/2026 9:35 AM | STEALTH FISHING IN BIG NAMES |
| 8/31/2026 1:22 PM | Monday’s Market |
| 8/31/2026 9:33 AM | ASSESSING WARSH – DID SOMEONE SAY THE BAND IS GETTING BACK TOGETHER? |
| 8/28/2026 1:39 PM | Jackson Hole Day |
| 8/28/2026 9:45 AM | TRYING TO SHAME THE FED CHAIR (IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK) |
| 8/27/2026 1:49 PM | Technology Leads the Charge |
| 8/27/2026 9:41 AM | NVDA DELIVERS |
| 8/26/2026 1:12 PM | All Eyes on Nvidia |
| 8/26/2026 9:37 AM | CONSUMERS LOOKING FOR END TO CONFLICT |
| 8/25/2026 1:43 PM | Subdued Action |
| 8/25/2026 9:44 AM | USA BRINGING THE HAMMER (BUT STILL SHOWING RESTRAINT) |
| 8/24/2026 1:28 PM | Bessent on Deck |
| 8/24/2026 9:32 AM | JENSEN IN THE BATTER'S BOX |
| 8/21/2026 1:06 PM | Market Moves Higher into the Weekend |
| 8/21/2026 9:41 AM | BOND RELIEF EVAPORATES |
| 8/20/2026 1:35 PM | Bessent Weighs In |
| 8/20/2026 9:47 AM | GREETINGS FROM SCOTLAND |
| 8/19/2026 1:11 PM | Lower Yields Powering Stocks |
| 8/19/2026 9:34 AM | STEEP REVERSAL |
| 8/18/2026 1:12 PM | Rotation Under the Surface |
| 8/18/2026 9:34 AM | AI MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
| 8/17/2026 1:38 PM | Marginal Move Monday |
| 8/17/2026 9:38 AM | INTERESTING PHENOMENON EMERGING |
| 8/14/2026 1:40 PM | Slow Close to the Week |
| 8/14/2026 9:29 AM | SO MUCH FOR DOLDRUMS |
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