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Morning Commentary

THE NEEDLE BARELY MOVED

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/7/2024 9:37 AM

The market bounced yesterday, but the giveback in the close was probably the bigger story. The market is not out of the woods. The Fear & Greed Index is still in ‘extreme fear...’

…and now near-term bias or the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has shifted to the downside.

Lots of Green

Investors eased into cyclical sectors, which looked highly oversold.

Interestingly, Technology (XLK) was in the middle of the pack, as Real Estate (XLRE) and Financials (XLF) continued to climb partly due to hopes for more aggressive rate cuts.

Buying Across the Board

Small-caps edged out mid-caps and large-caps.

According to Script

There were widespread reports of several trading platforms being down and stopping retail investors from making transactions.

It reminds me of the GameStop (GME) saga when the industry was allowed to change the rules. Back then, they were prohibited from buying—they could only sell.

On Monday, investors were also allowed to sell.

This raises the question few ever ask – who’s buying if I’m selling?

As it turns out, institutional investors were grabbing freefalling stocks with both hands as retail was selling.

Sometimes, the better part of valor is to do nothing and, at some point, do what insiders do. It's easier said than done, but this isn’t supposed to be a cakewalk. You don’t have to get played.

All the major equity indices closed well off the highs of the session.

Off The Highs

High

Close

S&P 500

5,312

5,240

NASDAQ Composite

16,620

16,366

NASDAQ 100

18,368

18,077

Russell 2000

2,087

2,064

Historically, 2% drops on Mondays are followed by rebounds that average 1.22%. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed up 1.04%, meaning it was ho-hum.

Today’s Earnings

Speaking of Earnings

After the close, Airbnb (ABNB) laid an egg.

Missed:

Management blamed weaker consumers, but also compared itself to Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).

Today’s Session

The Bank of Japan is coming to the rescue with a pledge to "maintain monetary easing" after their rate hike sent the world into a tizzy.

“I believe that the bank needs to maintain monetary easing with the current policy interest rate for the time being, with developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad being extremely volatile.”

“I think concerns about slowing growth in the US led to global market moves. Within that, because the BOJ’s rate hike helped correct the weak yen, and as that correction progressed, it’s probably a reason Japanese stock prices fell more than in other countries.”

- Uchida said in a speech Wednesday to local business leaders in Hakodate, northern Japan.

Meanwhile, the market's reactions to financial results remain mixed, but the harsher reactions stand out.  Major disappointment for Disney (DIS) and Airbnb (ABNB).

Spying the ten year auction at 1PM. On one hand, I want to see about demand but also as a gauge for how much panic remains in the air.


 

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