Yesterday, there was much ebbing and flowing. Still, by the closing bell, Nvidia (NVDA) found its footing. It edged higher, carrying the Technology (XLK) Sector higher, which in turn took the market higher (Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also lent a hand).

The buy-on-dips crowd will continue to show up and be encouraged as long as the S&P 500 is this much elevated over key technical inflection points and key moving averages.

This has become a significant problem for most investors, including me. Yesterday, two disastrous positions surged 11% and 8%, but most of the others finished lower. I know you can be down without my help, but navigating this means taking some lumps and dealing with red ink in shares of great companies. I've been here before, and in the coming weeks and months, I will send profit alerts and discover that 10 to 15% of subscribers have already closed the position(s) out of frustration.

There was some nibbling in small-caps across the board, but large-cap growth continues to dominate the market.

Why Would There Be Fear?

I read somewhere why anyone would fear a market that mostly goes straight up. I’m unsure if it was a rhetorical question, but anyone holding individual stocks or paying close attention is understandably worried, or afraid.

Market breadth was overwhelmingly negative, save for up volume on the NASDAQ  Composite, which outpaced down volume.

Market Breadth	NYSE	NASDAQ
Advancers	1,289	1,965
Decliners	1,517	2,220
New Highs	47	65
New Lows	61	180
Up Volume	1.31 billion	2.77 billion
Down Volume	1.45 billion	1.9 billion

 

How Skewed Is This Market?

Never has the market been up this much (on average +0.4% daily) with this many decliners.

By the way, the number of names changing hands above their 200-day moving average is about the same as the bottom of the April swoon.

Banks Passed the Stress Test

This year’s test circumstances were more challenging than in recent years, but the threat is also more elevated. I never believed these stress tests because when push comes to shove; they would get all the taxpayer funds needed to survive another self-induced armageddon.

Today’s Session

The latest revision of Q1 2024 GDP saw core PCE climb to 3.7% from initial reading of 2.0% and slightly above the consensus of 3.6%.

Real consumer spending slumped to 1.5% from 3.3%, missing the forecast for a third straight release. 

The American consumer is in more trouble than Wall Street really wants to admit.

Today Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is poised to be the worst performing stock in the market after laying an egg with its financial results and offering poor guidance.

A big reason for the miss according to management is a “worst-than-expected US consumer”.

Comments

The Sun'll come out tomorrow... Bet your Bottom Dollar? Mark Peterson on 6/27/2024 10:37:13 AM

A very appropriate summation in the title today. Way too much "smoke and mirrows" taking place around GDP growth vs. reality and expectations around the Fed-R cutting rates anytime soon. I'm personally in the fear category, while still holding some longer-term positions to perhaps ride out the upcoming storm. If the "house of cards" falls. Terry Dowler on 6/27/2024 10:47:38 AM

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