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Afternoon Note

Semiconductor Shift

By John Jean, Research Analyst
4/16/2025 1:16 PM

Major indices are moving lower today, with the Nasdaq lagging the pack. Notably, gold is getting another boost and oil is recovering.

The Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated, but is still below the 35 level.

The Magnificent Seven are all moving lower, with Nvidia (NVDA) selling off the most after the H20 chip restrictions.

Four out of eleven sectors are moving higher, with Energy (XLE) in the lead. Technology (XLK) is the laggard, led lower by the semiconductor names.

Economic Data

The NAHB Housing Market Index moved up to 40 in April from 39 in March and above forecasts of 37. Notably 60% of builders reported their suppliers are raising prices due to tariffs, with the average increase of 6.3%.

Industrial production fell by 0.3% M/M in March, reversing the trend from February’s 0.8% increase and below expectations of a 0.2% decline. The decline was due in part to a 5.1% decline in electric utility output and a 11.1% decline in natural gas utility output.

Manufacturing output rose 0.3% M/M in March, below February’s 1% rise, but in-line with estimates. Durable good production rose 0.6% M/M driven by motor vehicles, up 1.2%, and Aerospace equipment, gaining 1.8%. Meanwhile, non-durable good production was flat overall as increases in food, apparel, and chemicals were offset by declines in paper and petroleum products.


 

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