President Trump has signed additional tariffs on China, bringing the total to 104%, which means the overall tariff rate is 34%, according to some estimates.

Selling the Rip

The news sent the market reeling, although not initially. Yesterday’s early morning bounce was worn down, and the selling pace picked up only when red appeared on the screen. Considering how much it was up at the start of trading on news of more countries looking to cut trade deals with the White House, it was heartbreaking.

Materials (XLB) suffered the most significant decline, followed closely by Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Energy (XLE). Financials (XLF) endured the smallest drop ahead of earnings releases from big banks this week.

Heat Radiation

Infrared is the hottest color of heat radiation, and it is frequently used in the stock market today.

On the Cusp of a Bear

Visions of 2018

Fed Jay Powell went on Christmas vacation in 2018 and returned a different man. He hiked rates four times and brought the market within inches of a bear. The Street is increasingly betting that 2019 Powell will reemerge, as a May rate cut is now in the cards.

Meanwhile…Runaway Spending

The first half of the fiscal year is over, and the budget deficit swelled another $245 billion to $1.310 trillion.

Fear Gauge

Fear and panic are rampant in the market, as the Volatility Index (VIX) has entered the record books among the top 100 spikes in history. The good news is that in the past, the stock market rallied each time over the next one to five years.

Can you hold out?

Maybe Banks will Save the Day.

Big bank earnings revitalized investors and helped the markets get off to a sizzling start. They are positioned to be (temporary) saviors.

They held up very well in yesterday's tumult.

Today’s Session

All the overnight news and developments one would have expected happened overnight, including China announcing additional tariffs.

We’ve heard from one Fed official, as speculation grows, about an emergency rate cut.

Watching the Bond Market

Th focus isn’t the stock market but bonds, and not just US long bonds:

• US 30 year: +2.52%
• Japan 30 year: +6.80%
• UK Gilts 30 year: +4.19%
• Germany 30 year: +1.13%

Our bond auctions have gotten slipperier, to say the least.

There are big auctions today and tomorrow.

10-Year

30-year

Treasury Secretary Bessent on Fox Business this morning added some calm, but the fearmongering has gotten to a fever pitch.

Comments

Maybe the tide is turning. I am still hearing overblown fear but it seems as though the fear mongers are running out of steam. Yes, haters always hate according to Taylor Swift, but maybe the majority is finally shaking off the fear and doom, realizing no pain no gain. And let's not forget what Apollo's CEO is saying. Mike M on 4/9/2025 10:08:33 AM

Based on your book, this seems like a great time to consider taking small bites in the market. It's also obvious that Trump's tariffs are working to bring countries to the negotiating able, and that those that don't can later be cancelled, if necessary. That's not the impression I get from the above commentary? Jim Peyton on 4/9/2025 2:08:01 PM

It’s fun to see the experts back peddle! Sure glad I bought in big time yesterday! BTW, get your Chiron operator on the stick - title when a guest comes on the program! And again when the take is full screen! Maybe another operator? Or director? W2M on 4/9/2025 3:20:52 PM

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