It was a disheartening close yesterday, but all things considered, it could have been worse. Early in the session, money went to work, but not enough to seduce potential buyers into the fray.

The challenge is getting the S&P 500 (SPX) back above its 200-day moving average. Over the next week, the most significant potential market-moving events will be the announcements of tariff deals.

Currently, all the rhetoric is harsh, but significant negotiation is taking place behind the scenes. I’m unsure what will be done before April 2^nd but the market will pressure the White House.

Low volume continues to be the most popular foxhole, even more so than quality and value.

Beyond the issue of tariffs and the market's worst-case scenario entering the year, there was no doubt that multiples were stretched, and the hope was that earnings growth would make up the difference. However, earnings revisions have been sharply lower (although this is a seasonal trend that is expected to improve).

There are headlines, and there is a message from the market that is often overlooked.

Bracing for the Data

A significant amount of economic data is released today, which is likely to have a notable impact. I want to point out that the changes in the Michigan Sentiment survey are well-known; however, I only learned yesterday that a change in methodology, from telephone to online, has resulted in a significant increase in Democratic respondents. This must be taken into account in the recent shocking results.

Today’s Session

Personal income and spending data were released this morning, and once again, it reflects a more cautious consumer, as income gains outpaced spending.

A significant increase in non-durable goods is worrisome, as are persistently higher prices in insurance and healthcare.

Inflation-adjusted spending edged up 0.1% in February from -0.6% in January.

Prices are a little hotter than expected, sending stocks lower.