Yesterday, the S&P 500 (SPX) reached an intraday low, marking a 10% drawdown from its all-time high. 

Such milestones trigger even more selling, but finally, buyers emerge. They have the luxury of picking spots and not triggering a wave of fence-sitters, so the market finished washed in red, but off the lows.

A Lasting “Win”

In his first term, President Trump measured success via the stock market, which accounts for his 156 tweets. He had a lot to crow about, but the stock market isn’t a very efficient way of measuring the health of America in general and individual Americans in particular.

The powers that have worked hard to deter Trump have orchestrated the market lower with scary reports on tariffs and now a “potential recession.” A campaign also suggests American Expansionism has moved on to Europe. LMAO.

There remains speculation of a so-called “Trump Put,” a magic number on the downside that makes the Commander-in-chief cry “uncle.”

Method to the Madness

I haven’t seen anything I don't like from DOGE yet, but I’m looking at what they are doing rather than inflammatory headlines.

Just suppose Elon & Company can extract $3.6 billion a day or more in ‘waste, fraud, and abuse’ from the government. In that case, that means lots of empty coffers, and while in all cases, those coffers were unsavory establishments created to spend off taxpayer funds and reward the political class.

This is an austerity program for the wealthy, designed to channel money into the private sector so that the masses can pursue wealth.

A Bridge Worth Crossing

It’s a worthy endeavor and not a bridge too far. But therein lies the problem: there will be a gulf, and we don’t know how deep and wide it will be.

Tale of the Tape

A few intraday moves gave us confidence to put a toe in the water. Moreover, I’m intrigued that Wall Street firms haven’t changed their respective targets.

I think they are all banking on a strong second half as other parts of the Trump agenda make their way into the economy and hard data.

Meanwhile, this has become the most reported 8.6% pullback in the stock market's history. Forget throwing Granny off a cliff. Trump is crushing retirement-age workers. 

This is the most significant drawdown since 2023, but it's still very much run-of-the mill.

Today’s Session

The experts went on financial media all morning, telling listeners to brace for a higher-than-expected CPI report.

The report came below the consensus in every area.

Still, the experts are cherry-picking things, to show proof the Trump tariffs are already hurting Americans.  The narrative isn’t going away.  Moreover, the notion that all of a sudden, the average person who has been living in their recession for months, now fears recession will continue to be fanned.

Comments

I really like the bridge graphic. A picture is worth a thousands words. Your point about investment bankers not changing their projections proves the point. Change can be hard but if we are experiencing the cost of transitioning from a government to a business driven economy it's well worth it. Mike Mayone on 3/12/2025 11:42:09 AM

The Wall Street wokesters are steering this pullback. Other issues are the leftist courts and the "Supreme" Court which has its head in a place where it cannot see the light. Mark on 3/12/2025 3:17:33 PM

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