President Trump is a force of nature, but the Stock and Bond Markets have long been bullying the most powerful entities, including the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Watching the battle yesterday was like watching a King Kong versus Godzilla movie.

If Trump is Kong, Godzilla got the best of their initial encounter. This doesn’t mean Trump cannot win this battle, but the public relations campaign. Coupled with this, short-term declines in stocks and bonds will feel like a fait accompli.

The battle to bring back jobs, secure our border, and curb the inflow of fentanyl is infinitely more important than a short-term downturn in stocks and bonds. The same thinking must be applied to our debt and educational system. The United States has leverage with its trading partners, and while I’m less of a fan of tariffs on Canada, now is the time to extract trade and security concessions.

• 84% of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S.
• 77% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S.

There is hope and a firm belief that the tariff scrum will be short-lived (see article below), but President Trump was proud of them and asked Americans to bear with him through early pains.

Lots of Fear

This is the furthest into ‘extreme fear’ the market has been having since October 2023. This is usually a buy signal, so be ready.

The Volatility Index (VIX), the so-called Fear Index, is at worrisome levels, but is the kind that tries to push the decision markets around.

Roller Coaster

The market was staging a strong rebound into the close yesterday, then hit another speed bump, which some attributed to a spike in the Japanese yen.

Investors returned to Technology (XLK), where key names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) staged reversals that could be the start of more significant moves. Financials (XLF) were the hardest-hit sector, which is odd considering that new conventional wisdom holds Financials as the current safe haven.

Rise of the Dead

Many of the biggest losers over the past two years, including my biggest personal loser, Enphase Energy (ENPH), bolted to the top of the advancers list. This is serious bottom fishing.

TMT Dynamite

Yesterday, other things were happening besides tariffs, including the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference. Lots of positive news helped prominent Tech names regain equilibrium.

"We ended the year with more demand than supply. And it's really evidence of the great work that the cloud team is doing of providing outstanding products and services for our customers."

- Alphabet CFO

"Every bit of the H2 confidence we had on selling all the incremental capacity is still there...we're impacted by still being short supply. We hope to have that imbalance by the end of the fiscal year."

- Microsoft CFO

President Trump’s Address to Joint Session of Congress

It was a great night filled with hope and promise, the secret ingredient for any successful endeavor.

Today’s Session

The ADP jobs report was half of what the Street expected at 77,000. I’m struck by the lame use of “uncertainty,” but I’ve said the labor crisis won’t come from mass firing but lack of hiring.

Key industries lost jobs including trade, transportation, and utilities.

Comments

Mike Johnson having Al Green removed. Law & Order on display Scott Spages on 3/5/2025 10:12:49 AM

DJ's response when Trump told him he is hired Jim Axelson on 3/5/2025 10:14:46 AM

Dems showed poorly last night. MICHAEL Edward TAMMARO on 3/5/2025 11:00:13 AM

It was not needing new laws to stop illegal immigration, but needing a new president. Ric Walter on 3/5/2025 11:12:39 AM

“Turns out all we needed was a new President “ Tom Woodall on 3/5/2025 11:25:50 AM

DJ, that was so awesome! I wish there was a way can keep up with his status. David Hess on 3/5/2025 1:28:31 PM

We saw that Trump 2.0 is different than 45. We saw the Dems are not willing to work for change but to work against it. I was disappointed. I know where the problem is. Tom Hall, Phoenx, AZ on 3/5/2025 1:34:39 PM

Every minute of it DAVID HARRISON on 3/5/2025 2:53:16 PM

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