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Morning Commentary

MAKE LOVE, NOT WAR

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/14/2025 9:51 AM

Yesterday's Trump presser focused on reciprocal tariffs, but as usual, the Commander-in-chief also made other news. He stated his desire to cut the defense budget in half yesterday.

Those headlines reeled in defense contract stocks, making it the only patch of red on the Heat Map.

The New Tariff Clock

When Trump held his presser, the market was already in rally mode. There was a sigh of relief from the Street that new tariffs had been delayed, starting in April. The biggest winners were an eclectic mix of not-so-sexy Technology (XLK) names.

Biggest Sigh of Relief

With more and more mentions of tariffs on earnings calls, it is clear corporate America and Wall Street analysts are concerned (nothing can interfere with these bottom lines).

No sector has had more mentions of tariffs than Materials (XLB), which helps explain why it performed the best in yesterday’s session.

Be Prudent but Not Scared

I continue to rail against the scare tactics of the media, which will be a problem for investors every single day of the Trump presidency.

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) ‘bearish’ Sentiment Survey at this level, with the market less than 2% from the all-time high, has only happened three other times in history. Folks, be careful not to let biased headlines wreck your investing goals.

Today’s Session

Major indices are opening slightly higher, except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Notably, the ten-year treasury yield (TNX) continues lower, breaking below the 4.5% level.

Retail sales declined 0.9% in January, with losses across almost all categories. Notably, department stores and restaurants were one of the only exception, even after unusually bad weather affected mobility in the Southeast.


 

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