The jobs report was a bust, and the stock market roared. JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) said there was only a 5.0% chance of paltry numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but the stock market would be slammed if it happened. 

The rally faded into the close, but most factors finished in the green.

Bond Yields

The ten-year bond yield continues its unrelenting move higher, finishing at a critical resistance point.  The canary is squawking loudly, but there isn’t an agreement on the message other than potential danger ahead.

Bloomberg put forth these as the four main reasons commonly cited for the change in the configuration of yields that have a significant impact on many other countries:

• A series of data surprises that suggests that the U.S. economy is stronger than what was the consensus forecast.
• A move in the political “betting markets” favoring not just former President Donald Trump’s chances at the election, but also a red sweep that could push the door wide open for the imposition of significant trade tariffs.
• The policy back-tracking  has become apparent in signals from Fed officials after Sept. 18, including in the minutes released in mid-October.
• Indications of weaker foreign buying interest in U.S. treasury bonds.

Nothing about the $35.0 trillion in debt, which should be at the top. It will be interesting to see if changes in the betting markets influence bonds.

The USD has also been on a tear, and many suggest it’s a proxy for a potential Trump win tomorrow.

What’s Spooking Uncle Warren?  Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is now sitting on over $300.0 billion in cash, has sold 2/3 of its Apple (AAPL) position this year, and didn’t buy back any of its stock last quarter.

Nvidia (NVDA) joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) reduces my confidence in the stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is simply too antiquated and flawed. Officially, 12 names, mostly rails, and in the early years, included sugar, cattle, and rope and twine companies. Today’s 30 stocks are not enough, and the fact that they are weighted by share price is insane.

NVDA will be the 22^nd most influential stock in the index.

Let's hope that NVDA fares better than Intel’s run for those planning to hold it for the next 25 years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Intel (INTC) outperform NVDA over the next five years.

Today’s Session

Everyone is focused on the election which will move markets more than any other event this week.

Over the weekend, a couple of specious polls shifted the betting markets, which turned to impact polls.

In addition, the media ran with a couple of stories that were false.

Financial media, which had largely ignored betting sites and dismissed them as being manipulated, couldn’t get enough.

This morning, it began with a focus on “Trump Trades” under pressure.

The fact is that bond yields should be lower, and the USD is stretched.

Now betting cites are turning higher for Trump, so maybe something else will come into focus.  Bottom line right now: everyone is anxious.  By the way, I will be speaking to the CEO of Kalshi on Making Money today - so tune in.

The earnings calendar slows down a lot, but could give more insight on the overall economy than Mag Seven names which dominated last week.

Comments

Trump Larry Farwick on 11/4/2024 9:57:08 AM

The R-ticket is not leading the D-ticket by enough to overcome the D-machine's tricks. T in Tx Tim in Texas on 11/4/2024 10:07:15 AM

I'm holding my breath and crossing my fingers for DJT. Ric Walter on 11/4/2024 10:23:54 AM

Trump Praying hard. Debbie Johnson on 11/4/2024 1:37:07 PM

Mrs. Kamala Harris will be the next president due to the very large illegal immigrant voting block. The majority of illegal immigrants have easily obtained I.D.s and will cast their vote toward Democrats. James on 11/4/2024 3:24:13 PM

T Mitchell Schiff on 11/4/2024 4:04:31 PM

Trump jerry ferguson on 11/5/2024 10:45:26 AM

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