Never Had a Chance

The Tryptophan kicked in on Wednesday for the stock market, as the session was a ‘Turkey,’ led by weakness in Technology (XLK) out of the gate. The rest of the market held momentarily, but their fate was sealed, much like the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving.

The good news is that there wasn’t much cause for alarm, but the market is building on an assumption of success that invites the kind of disappointment and panic, which can quickly morph from a snowball into a boulder.

Overview

Real Estate (XLRE) continued to rally, believing the ten-year bond yield had peaked. This assumption was made this year, as specks of green across extended factors illustrate the lack of foxholes.

Today’s Session

I hope you had a great Turkey Day!

It’s a half-day session (the ridiculous day for opening the stock market), and the lack of volume usually means the side with the most robust axe to grind usually wins.

Right now, that’s the ‘bulls,’ but like a ‘Turkey,’ it's hard to see the market gaining too much altitude.

Also, active money managers continue to play catch-up (I love it).

Ironically, retail investors continue to retreat from solid bullish sentiment. I think this is smart and not an indictment on the market in general, but a sense that maybe the market will have a hiccup soon.  Obviously, there will be hiccups and worse, but the idea is to actively manage your portfolio without falling so in love that you miss signs or ignore your investing rules.

There will be no Afternoon Note, so make some trades and walk off that huge meal. We are watching the ten-year bond yield drift below the November 5th level, signaling less angst.