Morning Commentary
Nvidia (NVDA) was the lone star of an otherwise terrible session. The company added the equivalent of one Lockheed Martin (LMT) ($145 billion) to its market cap and is within spitting distance of Apple (AAPL) for the top spot. With the stock leading the way, Technology (XLK) was the only S&P 500 sector that was higher at the closing bell.
Factors & Heat Map
Growth eked out the tiniest gains, and small caps took it on the jaw in another brutal session as the spike in yields brought back concerns about the maturity wall.
Suddenly, the Mag Seven were left standing when the rest of the market was in shambles.
Bond Roar
Something isn’t right. Or maybe something is right, and we must finally listen.
The Ten Year Bond Yield (TNX) is higher than when the FOMC cut rates after surging through several resistance points. Although there is debate over what's happening, the stock market cannot ignore the siren call. Some point to the rise in Trump’s numbers, but I'm not buying it. We are trying to understand it better.
Economic Data
Although earnings will dominate the market, they don’t sleep on the massive economic data docket.
Today’s Session
Lots of earnings out this morning and none of them standout as spectacular. The story here is, there were many major companies that missed on revenue consensus.
The FOMC’s next move seems unclear even after Mary Daly says she doesn’t see reasons to stop cutting rates.
That would be a lot more believable if bond yields weren’t surging higher.
Then, there’s the so-called Trump Trade which is playing a role in those higher yields.
Investors are also loading up on the dollar as Trump gains momentum in betting markets, and to a lesser extent polls.
Tweet |
9/12/2025 1:28 PM | Mega-Caps Move Higher |
9/12/2025 9:32 AM | JAILBREAK |
9/11/2025 1:39 PM | Rally Continues |
9/11/2025 10:08 AM | All AI All the Time |
9/10/2025 1:55 PM | The Oracle Effect |
9/10/2025 9:50 AM | PARTY IN WHOVILLE |
9/9/2025 1:50 PM | Sharp BLS Revision |
9/9/2025 9:48 AM | Tech & Large Cap Safety |
9/8/2025 1:29 PM | Technology Leads Again |
9/8/2025 9:34 AM | FOREBODING |
9/5/2025 1:29 PM | Jobs Data Digest |
9/5/2025 9:55 AM | JOBS DAY (BUCKLE UP) |
9/4/2025 1:07 PM | Stocks Rise and Yields Sink |
9/4/2025 9:45 AM | MOSTLY BLAND |
9/3/2025 1:48 PM | Big Tech Rebounds |
9/3/2025 9:41 AM | NOT AN EMOTIONAL RELEASE (YET) |
9/2/2025 1:37 PM | Gloomy Start |
9/2/2025 9:44 AM | REMEMBER SEPTEMBER? |
8/29/2025 1:33 PM | Fed Governor Cook(ed)? |
8/29/2025 9:49 AM | THE OTHER TECH NAMES AWAKEN |
8/28/2025 1:37 PM | Rallying Resolve |
8/28/2025 9:44 AM | NVDA TRIPPED UP |
8/27/2025 1:31 PM | All Eyes on Nvidia |
8/27/2025 9:45 AM | THE BEST BOUNCE EVER |
8/26/2025 1:16 PM | Bumpy Session |
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