The S&P 500 finished unchanged yesterday, but nine sectors traded higher, led by Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF).

Technology (XLK) took it on the chin, which meant growth and momentum took it on the chin, but buyers found other options.

All Systems Go

Market bias is to the upside across the board.

A closing new high on better-than-average volume would be a huge buy signal, forcing professionally managed money into the mix.

Don’t Flatter Yourself

For weeks, most Wall Street bigwigs suggested that while bonds are typically considered the intelligent market, the stock market was reading the room better. That was why everyone except me and a few others was adamant about a 25-basis points (bps) cut.

Everyone has climbed on the 50 bps cut train, but if the Fed goes with this so-called “monster cut,” it won’t be because of stock investors.

I suspect the Fed is increasingly aware of what the bond market is sniffing out—the growing possibility of a recession.

I’ve been peeling the layers of data and information on this, and I already think more of the nation is in a recession that wealthy consumers are masking.

We see it in travel data and other restaurant data.

Most Wall Street firms have not officially assumed 50 bps, but are looking for a few to do so today. But for now, the official read is this is the most uncertainty ever going into a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

We get retail sales today, which should be compelling.

It has not adjusted for inflation but has become quite the market mover of late.

Today’s Session

Retail Sales came out this morning, beating consensus on the headline while missing on core (ex-autos). I suspect autos will roll off a lot, but at discounts that speak more to a lack of consumer strength than the opposite. 

Online sales also reflect bargain hunting among consumers. Most intriguing was groceries, which might reflect a combination of lower prices and lower demand.

We might be giving up on the restaurant craze. 

+1.4% online

+0.7% health, personal care

+0.3% sporting, hobby, music

+0.1% building mats, garden

0% restaurants, bars

-0.1% cars, parts

-0.6% grocery

-0.7% clothes

-0.7% furniture

-1.1% electronics

-1.1% dept stores

-1.2% gas stations

Comments

Common Man, Blue Horshoe loves PLTR Craig Gelfound on 9/17/2024 9:36:59 AM

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