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Morning Commentary

THE ECONOMY IS UNWELL

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/11/2024 9:57 AM

It reminds me of the Frank Sinatra classic “Luck Be a Lady,” except it is “Momentum Be a Lady.”

Technology (XLK) saved a session that could have gone bad after bad news from the banking sector.  When the dust settled yesterday, advancers and decliners were neck and neck, and there were more 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) than new lows. The NASDAQ up volume dominated down volume as investors embraced those names that brought them to the dance.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

1,381

2,048

Decliners

1,412

2,132

New Highs

211

125

New Lows

117

168

Up Volume

1.07 billion

2.50 billion

Down Volume

1.84 billion

1.69 billion

Sore Spots

Here comes Tech, but those two red spots are worrisome; big banks and oil drillers. We covered banks in yesterday’s Afternoon Note, but that story is just unfolding.

Oil Dries Up

Oil companies got hit hard as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) failed to hold critical support. This is not a great sign, as oil is a proxy for the broad economy.

Down Dollar

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) continues to find support around the same level, but how long can it hold?

The market is back in the ‘fear’ zone, even though it was up this week. The internals and other developments give credence to enhanced anxiety.

Never Forget

My goodness, time flies. It's been twenty-three years since that horrific day. Not only does the memory of 9/11 stay with us, but so does the carnage. More first responders have died since the attack than on that fateful day.

Freedom isn’t free.

Today’s Session

This morning the August CPI report came in higher-than-expected on month-to-month basis for Core CPI.  The news probably puts to bed the possibility of a 50-bps rate cut.

Lots of intrigue among the categories with the biggest increases including motor vehicle insurance which stands out big time, as well as tobacco which is making a comeback.

But the red flag continues to be housing and rent.  This data was supposed to go lower a long time ago.  On motor vehicle repair, my truck is in the shop and they want a lot of money to fix stuff that shouldn’t be broken.

The stickiness of inflation is still an issue for many economists, but high rates are doing more harm to middle and lower income households.

Nobody wants to talk about it, but we should be aware of the risk of stagflation.


Comments
I guess used cars are down because no one wants to buy something that's expensive to fix! Or insure.

Charles Lucente on 9/11/2024 10:19:32 AM
Touché!

Charles Payne on 9/11/2024 10:24:02 AM
We drop bombs on people for 20 plus years, then turn around and hold the door open for them. What could go wrong?

Michael Supplee on 9/11/2024 11:47:47 AM
Under Today's Session, it says, "This morning the August CPI report came in higher-than-expected on month-to-month basis for Core CPI. The news probably puts to bed the possibility of a 50-bps rate hike." Shouldn't it say, "rate cut"…?


Wade on 9/11/2024 7:17:08 PM
Thank you, yes it should say rate cut. We have updated it.

John Jean on 9/11/2024 8:20:09 PM
 

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