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Morning Commentary

Nip & Tuck

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/24/2017 9:58 AM

According to Phrases.Org, the first known usage of 'nip and tuck' comes from an 1845 edition of The American Whig Review:

"The boys used to say, it was nip and tuck between Jack... and Castro, who would do the most foolhardy things."

And so it was yesterday the would-be replacement bill for Obamacare was a nip and tuck battle within the Grand Old Party with underlying tensions captured perfectly by the stock market, which crossed the unchanged line 86 times during the session.

All the anxiety at the start and end of the session:

In the end, the major indices all closed factually lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down for the sixth consecutive session.

For now, the answer is “no” but hope springs enteral or for at least the next 24 to 72 hours.  While it’s reasonable Investors are anxious over the timeline of tax cuts, tax reform, infrastructure and more regulatory relief, I think they all happen. It might be good to shelve the Ryan bill and refocus on adding some high octane to the economy, which is clearly on the move.

Meanwhile, there are great things happen in the economy that investors should not overlook.

Last night, Micron (MU) reported earnings that beat, justifying the rally in semiconductors, which are now enjoying great pricing power.   DRAM pricing up 21% is a huge leap for Micron and its rivals.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX), already up 10% for 2017, probably breaks out significantly higher.

Today’s Session

I’m not sure if the Obamacare replacement bill passes today, but must admit it’s not a good bill, and if it’s done to win reelection in 2018, it’s a huge mistake.  Moreover, President Trump doesn’t need this to get the rest of his agenda through.  In fact, one could argue he might take greater control of the process with respect to other parts of his agenda. 

Hang on for wild gyrations, which I think will be exasperated by the- not so- invisible hand of smart money looking to shake out a few weak sisters (and brothers, uncles, aunts) so they can buy weakness.


Comments
Unfortunately most people do not get the calculus of politics. Since our countries politics have been permanently broken by the Democratic Party politicizing even cabinet appointments and basically everything. If we do not learn how to work together in our own party we are doomed to failure. The problem with the House bill is that if you meet the caucuses requirements, it will NEVER pass in the Senate since we are tied to the appropriations process of passing this bill. Everyone has lost faith and it is killing our entire way of life. This is going to take multiple parts to fix. More importantly, without the Republicans acknowledging that Democrats will never work together at this time and place, they must develop a no holds barred brass knuckles governing philosophy or fail. Unless and until the ACTIONS of the Democrats change signaling a change in philosophy, we will have to go it alone. Trying to deal with the Democrats is like dealing with a petulant teenager. There is no negotiating, your only hope at doing anything together depends on their acknowledging that though they may disagree with you, you can work together and have a relationship. Could we do more together? Sure, but how can you work with people whose basic MO is that you are evil and racist and hateful. That is never a starting point for anything worthwhile and meaningful.

Whatever happened to actually discussing the different approaches to problems and working together. Reagan and the Democrats did it and Clinton and the Republicans did also.

Without a change in Democratic Leadership, I hold no hope for any change in the calculus now. Sad indeed.

Ray Weldon on 3/24/2017 10:46:42 AM
Well said, Ray!

William Brown on 3/24/2017 11:29:45 AM
Couldn't agree with Ray more! As long as Chuckie Schumer and Nancy Pelosi are leading their respective legislative bodies, there is NO HOPE for any form of reconciliation on ANYTHING! It is quite obvious even to the average American citizen that the Democrats will do all in their power to make the next two then four years of this Congress as ineffective as possible. An "Iron Fist" approach is the ONLY effective way Republicans can expect to get anything done for the country, but I hesitate to believe people like John McCain have the backbone to challenge the other side of the aisle. Sad, but TRUE!

James Warlin on 3/24/2017 12:46:26 PM
People seem to forget the reality that the only way to pass this thing is in "reconciliation" on a budget bill. There's no way to pass it in the Senate if you need 60 votes.
If you pass tax reform, without healthcare reform,in the budget, the budget is done. There is no time for a big do-over on the healthcare thing. And the chance of doing healthcare reform in an election year (next year) is nil. Do it now or wait until after the next election. That's why "healthcare first" and "now or never".


Neal on 3/24/2017 4:29:39 PM
 

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