Morning Commentary
If the market feels lackluster, that’s because it has been. In fact, we enter today's session with the third-longest streak of gains and losses less than 0.20%. With the summer doldrums already here, what does that mean for the stock market? Well, all other periods on the list happened in the middle of bull markets, so it seems it is a period of concern and reloading.
While every bull market is different from the historic basis, it would not be surprising if it would take another two years for the current rally and a lot more upside.
Bull Markets |
Historic |
Current |
Duration |
8.5 Years |
6.2 Years |
Total Return |
458% |
178% |
This week, housing takes center stage, and after that huge housing starts report earlier last week, single-family homes are up 15% from a year ago; there is anticipation there will be big beats.
Today’s Session
The major equity markets didn’t know what to do with themselves in the pre-market hours. The Dow Jones Industrial average showed signs of opening flat, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 decided to sink deeper into the red. With this week being shortened to four days thanks to the Memorial Day holiday, there is a lot of data being released today that will need to be digested and, in the meantime, may cause volatility in the market.
Comments |
and ... natural follow up ... how long do the "un-rallies" usually last? i'm an old guy and only have 70-80 years left to weather these financial sinusoids. also, have the cycle lengths been noticeably different as they span different parties? and your anti-robo-spam questions (captchas) are too hard. ira haron on 5/26/2015 10:12:46 AM |
I don't see much further increase under massive debt and communist rule (Obama). I don't see any big drop with current P/E. Therefore, I see the market as flat +/- 7% until Nov 9, 2016. If the Demoncrats win, then the prospect of another $10T debt and no jobs for 4 more years ought to result in a 30-40% drop by early 2018. If Republicans win, then debt reduction (or containment) ought to give us slow 5-10% growth before we have to deal with existing debt through inflation (within 3-4 years). If an independent wins, then all bets are off, and the country will be stronger after some very painful turmoil. Bob G on 5/26/2015 10:33:07 AM |
Anyone who depends on the stock market to predict the future, is as nuts as the stock market is. Our stock market makes no sense at all and is a un reliable forecaster of our financial future. We are facing WW3 in the mid east yet the markets keep going up. Sheer Insanity. tom wayne on 5/26/2015 11:07:23 AM |
The light went off in my crystal ball so it's in the garage for an overhaul. Your guess is as good as mine. That's what you guys do, right? Rusty on 5/26/2015 11:08:20 AM |
Bob G. seems to have a handle on this subject. "Communist Rule" (obuma, soros) I wish we all came out of our closets and started demanding accountability for this coruption taking place. taking place. Rusty on 5/26/2015 11:16:57 AM |
Let's see what has happened under Obama: 1. No new wars and soldiers home; 2. Economy has reversed & unemployment down; 3. Stock indexes more than doubled; 4. GDP at highest level in our history; 5. Annual deficit reduced by more than 50%; Yep-the sky is falling in. Oh, for the good old days of Cheney and Bush! Harold sader on 5/26/2015 12:17:26 PM |
ARE YOU SERIOUS? 1. Terrorist run rampant in Iraq 2. Economy had to get better, people gave up looking for work 3. Stock indexes no more than inflation-adjusted pre-crash 4. GDP high? Something must be high, but it is definitely not the GDP 5. Yay government is only borrowing half as much as it used to! For the first time in my life from beginning NOT be proud to be an American. Timothy on 5/26/2015 4:36:29 PM |
Besides a corrupt administration and a "selfie" Congress, everything is OK. E.V. Wagoner on 5/26/2015 8:22:17 PM |
Ombma is a Communist leaning Socialist, YES. I hear there was a deal OBAMA/KERRY made with Iran, where Iran would "run the middle east", and stablize it. INTERESTING, BUT TRUE PEOPLE SAY, I DO NOT KNOW Joe Cayman on 5/29/2015 11:37:29 PM |
Tweet |
4/26/2024 1:46 PM | Full Steam |
4/26/2024 9:39 AM | BIG TECH STEPS UP |
4/25/2024 1:16 PM | Don't' Bury me, Yet! |
4/25/2024 9:27 AM | THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE |
4/24/2024 1:30 PM | Earnings Flood In |
4/24/2024 9:26 AM | BUYING THE DIP |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
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