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Question of the Week

What's to blame for job erosion? Go to www.wstreet.com to pick and also share additional thoughts with me at charles.payne@wstreet.com
Poor economic policies
People accepting government largess in return for permanent vote
Rise of the machines

Morning Commentary

Giving Away Prosperity

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/26/2015 6:59 AM

Well, Syriza won big in Greece, setting the stage for a serious showdown that will test the nerves of lenders and borrowers. Germany has a lot to lose if Greece defaults on bonds and bailout obligations. But, it could lose more if it allows the debtor nation to dictate terms that will only dismantle previous arrangements; it would bring back the kind of profligate spending that got them in trouble in the first place.

Giving Away Prosperity

It's the message of Washington, D.C. these days that prosperity can be given if we ditch free markets for a system of fairness that sprinkles cash around. This would be based upon the needs of the recipient rather than skill or the farfetched notion of return on investment. Studying history and considering the nature of mankind, this battle will go on forever, until one day, we plunge into a system that spreads the wealth. Of course, no one will be there to bail America out, not even the Fed and its magic printing press.

Showing True Love

I don’t hear people talking about it much these days, but when Bush was president, many of my black and some of my liberal friends would complain that we were still due our “40 acres and a mule” or the cash equivalent. Many pointed to Bush’s dislike of blacks as the reason this economic injustice was being upheld.

My reply: If the president really hated black people, he or she would pass out those checks.

If the amount was $50,000 one year later, more people would be in debt, broke, and families would be ripped apart. This has nothing to do with race and everything to do with humans. Without the right kind of training and preparation, giant windfalls are, more often than not, squandered. This is why more than half of all professional athletes in history have ended up financially bankrupt. Yet, what if the cash came in nice and slow... like a steady stream?

If people don't have to work for it, don't save up for it, and don't think it will ever end, that kind of windfall is eventually squandered.

Case in point: when the Supreme Court of the United States gave the green light to casinos on Indian reservations, it was hailed as an economic godsend. It’s been anything but, as poverty has risen twice as fast at reservations that give out cash from casinos directly to members than reservations that don’t.

The problem is obvious, but it sounds better coming from a Native American like Ron Whitener, law professor, tribal judge, and a member of the Squaxin Island Tribe: “These payments can be destructive because the more generous they become, the more people fall into the trap of not working.”

Message of Market

It's been a wild year of ups and downs- very manic action that's obviously unsettling as if the market is grappling for direction and guidance.

Let's talk about the message of the market; last week, airlines were the best performing industry for obvious reasons, but how do we explain gold and employment agencies? Gold moving higher as an alternative to other currencies is not a great sign for the world, but some of the move is technically based on traders jumping on the bandwagon. The good news could be employment agencies performing well- we need them to become market leaders.

Best Performing Industries
Week end Jan 23

Airlines

11.9%

Gold

6.7%

Employment Agencies

6.1%

On the other side of the coin, delivery stocks were walloped following the lead of a big earnings miss at United Postal Service (UPS). Kimberly-Clark (KMB) hurt as personal products brought in less revenue and steel was simply crushed.

"I do not mind lying, but I hate inaccuracy."

-Samuel Butler

In 1863, Samuel Butler wrote a series called "Darwin among the Machines" which prophesized that machines would eventually surpass mankind in supremacy making us inferior.

I bring this up not only out of my robot paranoia, but the quote perfectly sums up where we are with respect to our political leaders and maybe the second class status of mankind. According to Cringely.com, IBM is preparing to lay off 100,000 people under a reorganization called Project Chrome.

So, upon further review, which statement says more about the economy: cherry picked stats used in the State of the Union and, really, by politicians in general, or one of the mightiest companies in America laying off 26% of their workforce?

Of course, the irony is, maybe this is all inevitable.

Oxford has already written a great white paper noting almost 50% of current jobs will be replaced by software and robots, but it's not supposed to happen this month. There's a greater current issue of the economy and the uneven recovery that's plaguing the middle class and holding poor people back. Of course it's easier to be held back if we accept the blue pill of goodies. IBM is open in the model portfolio, although we are not asking new subscribers to buy yet, or older subscribers to add (it's not bold on the Portfolio Approach- for more on information on how it works, contact your rep or research@wstreet.com), but this is the kind of news Wall Street loves.

It's also the kind of news that reinforces the notion that our elected leaders have no trouble lying as long as it's accurate.

Below are some of the companies that reported this morning. The list is relatively light this morning, however the week will be full of more releases.

Company

EPS

Consensus

Revenue ($M)

EPS Guidance

EPS Consensus

DHI

0.39

0.34

$2,253

-

FY15 1.81

NSC

1.64

1.63

$2,870

-

FY15 6.39


Comments
Part of Obama's grand scheme destroy America

jerry on 1/26/2015 10:00:41 AM
all three items are at fault equally.

Germans won't take a Greek default lightly.

Merkel will be under pressure to cut
the ties to the EU.....Nationalism will
start coming back in Europe.

tom wayne on 1/26/2015 10:03:37 AM
It is always easy to point fingers at others for our problems. Congress makes it easy with their ass-kissing attitudes and deal making which leaves everyone a loser instead of putting the country first. The Supreme Court makes it even easier with their insistence that they are gods even though everything they have instituted as a replacement morality for the original Constitution has proven to be a failure. And we all know that the leaches who want to live off the government are a serious problem.

But.... my answer is that we need to look at what has happened to our core values. Too many people have individually forsaken the work ethic. Too many people make excuses for little and big excursions from what is right, including speeding, jaywalking, cheating on taxes, shoplifting, and walking out of the store when we know the clerk gave us too much change. The bottom line on job erosion is work erosion, what we give back is often not worth the cost anymore.

I retired from my 6 figure job which required a college education and am now spending a lot of time reffing soccer, a job which does not pay well. I see 3 things in this which grieve me. Most of the refs I work with, people who are teaching our youth to supposedly obey the rules, think it is fine not to report their income when it is cash. They are stealing from you and me, and we all must pay more taxes because they refuse to pay their fair share. Second, I see too many who look at the pay and if they got a lesser game than they wanted (younger players, less pay), then they put in half the effort. They have no pride in their work to do the job right every time. [This is not related to age. There are youth and seniors who are slackers. There are youth and seniors who always do their best]. And worst of all, there are hose who watch the tax-thieves and slackers and do nothing about it. I don't report these people to the IRS, and I rarely tell the assignors when I have worked with someone who refuses to do the job. That makes me a part of the problem because I look the other way and watch this country c=go down the tubes because I don't want to take a stand for what is right.

"A fair day's pay for a fair day's work" must start with the work. Too many of us want double pay for half the work.

Bob G on 1/26/2015 10:45:58 AM
Nothing creates more indecision for a business owner than not knowing what the business/regulatory/taxation environment is going to look like. Hiring is a long term, expensive decision. The wrong person at the wrong time can set a small businessman back years. If they're comfortable with their current business, why go out on a limb if that employee is ultimately going to cost a lot more, proportionally, in the future.

Scott H. on 1/26/2015 12:01:24 PM
It started during the Andrew Jackson
administration. He was opposed to debt
but others in his administration forced it down the American's throats.

Cris on 1/26/2015 12:38:01 PM
So how can we make money off of the automation of the low skilled worker?
What are the quality hardware/software names?

Al on 1/26/2015 12:40:15 PM
Charles it's all 3 but I picked the one that is longer lasting and will be very hard to git rid of in with a conservative president.

Charles Martinez on 1/26/2015 12:49:22 PM
I personally know 3 people in my own family who prefer to live off the government. They are all capable of working. Two only take food stamps. One takes as much as he can get and for years has said he is going to get a job. If there are 3 just in my family, then there are a lot of them out there. They not only don't work they can't afford to buy much more than the minimum. You can't have a great economy that way. Yes the policies are crazy expecially regulations, and machines do more like auto cash takers at parks etc. But if you really want a job I believe you can get one or make one. A 17 year old near me has a lucrative business providing duck blinds to hunters and taking them to the blinds. It's attitude.

Fran Touchette on 1/26/2015 12:49:38 PM
Both choices are about equal. I would agree that the rise of the machines is a bad problem, getting worse. The economic policies of this country are pathetic, and getting worse. They will remain bad until this government is purged of Liberals/Socialists both Democrat and Republican.

Jerry Wilkins on 1/26/2015 2:21:28 PM
Say Charles: Everything happening is the result of a terrorist traitor in chief, period. Thanks, Jim, Benghazi report is all the proof needed, period

James Buckley on 1/26/2015 2:40:24 PM
A low skilled worker is a low skilled worker. They will never move up unless the try and improve themselves. Only a small percentage of them will do that, and the G is allowing more and more to come in every year. It would take 100 years to absorb what we have now, they will never produce themselves out of poverty to the point where they stop getting subsidized by the working middle class. Giving them money will not work, it will only bankrupt the country as a whole. The bottom 40% will never pay taxes, and the top 10% will mark it up to the working people that have to pay it. If we get any more Socialist/Communists in the government the country will become extinct within 50 years.

Jerry Wilkins on 1/26/2015 2:48:27 PM
I believe that the EU will disintegrate into the Northern EU and the Southern EU or the “Latino” EU. The Latino EU because this Southern culture represent what was the Roman Empire. The cultures are too different to be able to have a common social policy.
As for the many jobs that will be replaced by software bring the complicated world birth rate. Is it possible that the birth rate be controlled by the forecast of future jobs? The jobs requiring little or no learning will be the first one eliminated. The employment is found with the population whose jobs will be replaced. As time goes on, more and more learning will be required. What will happen to those that are not able to or do not want to learn? The choices are wealth redistribution or population control? Very controversial topic!


Philippe on 1/26/2015 5:17:33 PM
The poor policies are a product of the people accepting what's going on in the gov't. Fix the gov't through true audits, shrinking in the correct places, replacing folks (quickly) who don't perform, and the attitudes (and job situation) heals themselves.

Kevin Hess on 1/26/2015 10:16:34 PM
The answer is all three plus the breakdown in self-discipline and morality in our culture. Unfortunately, no one can put an exact number on that, but it is the root cause. We all want the easier, softer way. Raising the next generation is seen as inconvenient. We're ridden with selfishness, to the point where we tolerate millions of abortions without recognizing that by doing so we are destroying our own future. Just how many jobs has 58 million abortions cost us? Teachers, nurses, doctors, dentists, retailers, toymakers, sporting goods, clothing mfrs, and now the PC makers. The truth is: we need another greatest generation, but we're unlikely to get one with the current occupant of the White House. Perhaps the Baby Bust generation will surprise us by rising to the occasion. They just have to get angry enough first, and then develop the courage to change things. We desperately need a new generation of leaders. Jeb, Hillary and Mitt ain't it.

Dennis Howard on 1/26/2015 11:26:55 PM
Gov't regulations, and the taxes on corporations, is ruining America as we know it today.



Joe Caymin on 1/29/2015 12:23:07 AM
ObaminableCare prioritized as Teddy Kennedy's legacy before infrastructure jobs bills,tax reform and cost cutting put us on another path to destruction of our great nation!

John Cross on 1/29/2015 3:26:46 PM
Always enjoy your comentary & TV.

Donal Dermody on 2/3/2015 12:08:43 PM
I agree with the gentleman who said if you gave the Federal Government the Sahara Desert, in five years it would run out of sand!!

Charlene Voss on 2/3/2015 12:50:37 PM
lived around the world - free market creates wealth and opportunity for all classes. Government does not create wealth. Government suppresses classes.

Colin Smith on 2/3/2015 8:34:12 PM
A bail out would be impossible to avoid.

bart harrison on 2/4/2015 7:50:35 PM
Politicians should never be exempt from any law they pass. Politicians need to be impacted (not exempt from) the same laws they institute.Congress is becoming very inbred and no longer concerned about the laws they pass or how they impact the rest of America. Where have the politicians gone that are impacted by and operate under the same laws they pass ?

Dave Moody on 2/7/2015 7:40:14 AM
 

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