Question of the Week
Do you feel better or worse about your economic future (and the entire country) than you were four years ago- September 2010?
Do you feel better or worse about your economic future (and the entire country) than you were four years ago- September 2010?
Morning Commentary
What Are We Bracing For?
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/2/2014 6:24 AM
Can I see another's woe
And not be in sorrow too?
Can I see another's grief
And not seek for kind relief?
-William Blake
Why are Americans feeling so depressed and hopeless? This is not a rhetorical question. I understand the unevenness of the so-called rally, but just as things seem to improve and start to look better on paper, Americans seem to have gone into the fetal position, bracing for disaster. Many Americans have mixed emotions over our economy… in fact, only 57% of Americans now see themselves as middle-class, down from 72% in 2008. I understand the logic, since real wages are lower, commodity prices are higher, and millions are no longer homeowners. Yet, how is it that the further we are from the throes of the Great Recession, the less confident we are about our current and future economic circumstances?
What Kind of Catastrophe Are We Preparing For?
How do we explain the recent positive signs of wages edging higher and greater job security? It is not just that we are feeling lousy; perhaps Americans have not taken notice of the improvements. We stopped spending in March and began saving more cash. The rate of savings was 4.1% back in December, now 5.7%. My question is: What scared us this badly?
Look at personal savings levels: it is as high as it was going back to December 2012. It is as if consumers are intuitively building a war chest and somehow bracing for the worst. Close to $760 billion is tucked away, and while there is not the expectation that people would go out and spend all their money, a fraction of that cash would match any phony stimulus plan and dwarf the limited impact of all the Fed money printing.
The jobs report will be released this Friday, and of all of its critical components, I think wages matter the most. Tonight, on my show, we will discuss the notion of an income-less recovery.
Today’s Session
The market finished the month of August on a good note, though the last week of the month was one of the quietest stretches for the stock market so far this year (most likely due to many going on vacation). Technology, healthcare, and financials were the sectors leading the pack in overall weekly gains. Today, the major equity indices are gapping up, ready to start the month of September on an upbeat note as well. We just need observers to become more confident in the gains achieved since the great recession and see that our economy truly is improving for this rally to continue.
| Comments |
| Myself, I am grateful for being A okay, possible much better! Karin on 9/2/2014 9:56:47 AM |
| terror attack djp on 9/2/2014 10:03:52 AM |
| I am 71,I have owned my on business for 40 years. I have seen worse times (late 70s - early 80s). I have seen better times (2004-2006). I like the better times. My concern is socialism when it runs out of other peoples money. john wells on 9/2/2014 10:09:30 AM |
| Worse! One reason our representatives won't listen and stop the government spending. A simple answer when someone retires, don't replace the position. We need to shrink the size of government. Harriet Aristeguieta on 9/2/2014 10:10:41 AM |
| Charles, You are obviously a smart, highly motivated man. Why do you continue to mistake monetary/political/fiscal manipulation for recovery/prosperity? GARY STUEBGEN on 9/2/2014 10:11:32 AM |
| as long as the crooks/thieves at the major investment banks continue to loot and steal ,nothing will get better. It's all one sided and that 's that . don mckelvey on 9/2/2014 10:15:57 AM |
| My overall concern is the amount of debt that we carry and the substantial increases in the "Entitlement Society". We are seeing fewer and fewer Americans being able to contribute to the improvement in our economy. Lothar Herrmann on 9/2/2014 10:18:37 AM |
| Americans understand recessions, market crashes...tough times. But they expect recoveries too. 50% of households survive on less than $60k per year. Seriously, think about how you would be able to do that with a family of four. Second incomes were a luxury, now they are a necessity. If Incomes had just slightly outpaced inflation since 2000 the median household income would be over $80k today. Think of what consumer sentiment and the economy would be like if that were the case. Bill D on 9/2/2014 10:20:17 AM |
| Be positive it will get better. It always does! Paul Zatyko on 9/2/2014 10:20:22 AM |
| What scared us this badly? For us Two things. First is the governments lying about inflation. Staples that most of us have to buy have gone up considerably in the last 4 years; income has not. Second is the unwillingness of Obama to close our borders and/or deal with the world hot spots. With him gutting our military we're very worried about our nations security. I guess you could add a third thing. His disrespect for our laws and his lies; sets a great example for all of us. LARRY on 9/2/2014 10:32:13 AM |
| Here is the situation. Everyone is starting to figure out that we have no real leader, and that Government is more than a sham, it is destructive. Anyone with a lick of sense knows this will not end well. The potential powder keg of the haves vs have nots will not end well, and no one sees anything constructive being done by the federal government. There is real fear for the future and concern about what comes next. Anyone can see we are rapidly becoming a second/third rate country on the world stage. In a nutshell, our future as a country and individually is murky at best, and down right scary if one ponders it much. Our counrty, our financials, our freedoms all appear to be at genuine risk. We are bracing for the unknown because we don't see much good in the future coming our way. Dan Connolly on 9/2/2014 10:35:19 AM |
| I feel fairly better about our economic position. I'm not as confident in the political situation. The Democratic Party has done much to undermine the belief in our political system. Bryan Fox on 9/2/2014 10:38:07 AM |
| Dear Charles: I have to give you credit as one of few economic and market observers who acknowledge the major role played in our economic growth by soaring social costs. But the major driver of that are our changing demographics and the breakdown of the family, which can be seen most acutely in the black community. You can't have a prosperous economy when you have a 60% abortion rate -- mainly among those not yet married, many of whom will never get married. But that's just the tip of the iceberg, which I have been researching and writing about for 20 years. So far, we've had 57.7 million abortions, which is equivalent to the population of our 84 largest cities. If we had a war with 100% fatality rate in that many cities, America would be done for. Add to that the millions of births prevented by more efficient birth control. Putting aside the moral question, it's undeniable that you can't eliminate that many people and have prosperity. I estimate that if we had continued to grow even at a much more normal rate than we did during the Baby Boom, we'd have a $28 trillion economy today instead of the $17 trillion one we have. The economy still equals people x (money + resources) and there's no way to change that equation. I'd like to meet with you to discuss this before the next crash arrives. Meanwhile, I will email you my two latest reports. But, believe me, one of these days, the only people making money on the market will be the shorts. God bless you for your honesty and your courage. The rest of the experts are so wrapped up by political correctness that it is literally killing us. Dennis Howard on 9/2/2014 10:40:37 AM |
| Worse due to President's policies. Butch on 9/2/2014 10:42:48 AM |
| I feel somewhat better. The majority of the economic indicators are improved from 4 years ago (jobs, housing etc). However, what worries me is the political direction the country continues to head in that will ultimately shake the foundation of our country and hurt us economically. The liberal controlled government, the media and our education system continue to promote bigger government, higher taxes, expanded entitlements, the war on success, isolationism and the loss of more of our freedoms. Heaven help us. Steve on 9/2/2014 10:46:34 AM |
| Undecided - I will probably feel better if the Republicans can gain control of the full Congress and neutralize our befuddled President. He is not a leader - just a community organizer!! James Zeh on 9/2/2014 10:54:35 AM |
| No, too much entitlement, too much government intervention and spending (by both parties). It is an "every man for himself mentality" on all levels of the economic scale. bart harrison on 9/2/2014 11:09:33 AM |
| Sadly, I feel worse. I am blessed to have a steady job, but in my company and in other companies, I see struggle, tightening of budgets...there is so much instability in our world now, it is getting harder to stay positive. Sandra Avila on 9/2/2014 11:11:29 AM |
| I really appreciated the responses of Don M, Paul Z, Larry and Bryan F. Thanks as always for stimulating thought. Sandra Avila on 9/2/2014 11:15:51 AM |
| WOrse, not sure how one can underestimate the economic effects of the spiritual and moral digression of our country and world on its financial status and future. jason on 9/2/2014 11:22:10 AM |
| OBAMA, HARRY REID AND PELOSI HAVE SET THIS COUNTRY BACK ECONOMICALLY , SOCIALLY AND CULTURALLY A DECADE. ONLY A LEADER IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND A REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED CONGRESS IS OUR ONLY HOPE TO CORRECT THE ILLS OF THE UNITED STATES. MAVRICK on 9/2/2014 12:02:46 PM |
| Better. Markets are reflecting a better economy. More of us are living within our means, and generally more optimistic for ourselves and family. There's still plenty more to do, like strengthening the middle class's incomes. Dave Field on 9/2/2014 12:23:19 PM |
| The policies of our current administration and the Federal Reserve are causing great pain on our Country. We would be far better off had the government let the American people alone. Stop with all the excess regulations and trying to suppress earnings. We should not be penalized for hard work. The economy is just waiting for a change in administration to once again reach our potential. Simply get the government out of our way and let us do what we do. Carl Maggio on 9/2/2014 12:24:12 PM |
| Better. Our economy is ready to break out in so many ways, all we need is for Obama to be replaced with someone who will Imbrace Reagan's economic approach. If we are foolish enough to elect another democrat, all bets are off. The first American Revolution was bloody; the second American Revolution should be at the ballot box starting this fall. We will then need to follow up with another bloodless victory in 2016. Jim ODay on 9/2/2014 12:59:54 PM |
| How can anyone be confident when we have a runaway lawless government? Washington elites including many republicans are only interested in keeping their status as powerful wealthy politicians....to heck with the people and America's survival. LOUISE on 9/2/2014 1:20:17 PM |
| Four years ago we were in two years of BO's reign. We knew he was a Socialist by then but we were helpless to do anything about it. BO's democrats followed him like lemmings. The government has continuously taken away our right to free speech; has forgotten that they work for We the People; have taken our Rights Away from us and is continually trying to take our guns away. (Did you ever think that maybe Iraq would be free if the Citizens could have guns?) The fact is we have a corrupt government led by a traitor President yet I still am able to make money investing. Others are able too as well. So while I have no confidence in our Government keeping me free I have more financial security than I had in 2010. But, I am fighting hard to get rid of every Democrat in office and on the bench. As Americans we must fight to take our country back to a Constitutional Republic. If your readers are making money in the market, I urge them to donate to the Republican Party, the Party of True Americans. God Bless America Dee on 9/2/2014 1:43:18 PM |
| I am hearing discouragement from my clients when it comes to this country's economic future as long as we have the government involvement in business.... and I feel the same! Faye Winters on 9/2/2014 1:47:09 PM |
| Personally about the same—worse for the country. The socialist path with more regulation, entitlements and lack of spending control and political correctness is sending our country on a path from which it will difficult to recover Dick S on 9/2/2014 1:48:47 PM |
| It isn't looking any better to me. I wonder how many of us have just adjusted our expectations down, so it doesn't seem as bad to us now as it did four years ago. Patricia Flynn on 9/2/2014 2:06:45 PM |
| Things are getting worse. We're told that inflation is in check, but as one who buys groceries every week I know that it's not. The debt keeps rising and I hear less about it on the news from either party. We are now faced with a new terror group, far worse than any we've seen in the past, and we seem to have no coherent plan to fight them. Coupled with the lack of border security makes this an even greater threat. Bill Parker on 9/2/2014 3:07:13 PM |
| Moneys getting cheaper, prices getting steeper, found myself a woman but I just couldn't keep her. Times getting tougher than tough, things getting rougher than rough. by Jimmy Witherspoon bruce emery on 9/2/2014 3:14:10 PM |
| I have NO optimistic outlook on the FUTURE. None what so ever. RABJr on 9/2/2014 4:21:48 PM |
| Wow!! What an eclectic array of opinions have been expressed. Some are wild rantings of people with no understanding, others are based so much on hope rather than history. Will it all get batter because it always has? Did the evil triumvirate just put us BACK a decade economically, politically, and socially? I hold the opposite view because I observe history. Every regime in history has a founding leader who had vision and the ability to put together a very strong system out of the rubble of the past. And every regime in the past has degenerated from that start until it became the rubble that was built upon by the next regime. History tells us that our future is to become rubble. History tells us that this will happen as we lose moral and social integrity. The evil minions of the Supreme Court started the downfall with deeply flawed decisions that were to support the "perfect society". This "perfect society" depends on every one to act honorably and pull their weight, but it destroys the foundation that causes people to act that way. Excessive entitlement generates greed and sloth, which destroy the country. Court decisions on abortion and prayer destroy the moral fabric of the country and feed egocentricity which tears down the society. Decisions like Miranda swung individual rights to the extreme at the cost of losing truth in the courts and have made our courts a joke regarding justice. (In Texas many years ago, a fool of a federal judge ruled that every prisoner had a RIGHT to air conditioning and color TV, even though half the upright citizens in the state did not have these luxuries.) So I do not believe that the evil triumvirate have put us backward a decade, but rather that they have have advanced us half a century closer to the unavoidable collapse. They have taken away the legacy that the greatest generation desired to leave to their progeny. I do not believe that things always get better, I observe that the society has cycles that chart out as lower highs and lower lows, until eventual obscurity. Do I feel better now than four years ago? Four years ago, it was obvious that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid all deserved the unemployment they had crafted for the populace, and it looked like they would all get it. It looked like they would only be able to take a decade off our country's life expectancy before getting the boot. But, they lied to the fools with the ballots and 98% of the people are worse off for it. In 4 years, they were able to only do a little to destroy the integrity of the various departments of the federal government. In 8 years of corruption, they will have destroyed almost all of the goodness and honesty which was there, replacing it with corrupt leaders who are very hard to ferret out. It is always harder to rebuilt than to destroy, and it will take 4 or 5 terms of honest presidents who are Americans who care about the country to dismantle the damage and rebuild the government without corruption. The damage done by the evil triumvirate of haters of America is extensive. What is most disheartening is that no-one who has stepped forward so far to take the helm in 2017 is even close to worthy of the job. So the answer to the question is that there is no way any student of history can feel we are better off now than we were 4 years ago. I must agree with the man who wrote that although he has growing profits in the market, the end is far too close. Bob G on 9/2/2014 5:51:57 PM |
| I'm better off and so is my son but I think my grandchildren will not be. Carl Buccinio on 9/2/2014 6:18:14 PM |
| NO LEADERSHIP AT THE TOP MEANS NO DIRECTION FOR OUR COUNTRY. TIME TO STORM THE WHITE HOUSE. THAT IS A GOOD PLAN. THE FUTURE IS IFY BOB B on 9/3/2014 12:07:27 AM |
| Better. Stocks have gone up. Have a new granddaughter,with another on the way. Bob Lynch on 9/3/2014 7:51:46 AM |
| I feel better despite the Administration and doom crew. That's because government never seems to kill entrepreneurs, despite its best efforts (lack of skill, not lack of will). I also know enough to dismiss the daily (paid) ads on websites of folks that supposedly believe in free enterprise warning of an impending economic collapse. But it's no wonder that ordinary folks can't withstand the bombardment. Tom Haynes on 9/3/2014 7:57:32 AM |
| I would like to feel better about our country, BUT in seeing the groundwork that the Democrats are laying and the fact that the Repbulicans have no backbone I am deeply concerned. One example is the social expirmentation that is going on in the military. Did ;you know that Army posts can not show FOX tv on their waiting room tvs. Employees have been instructed it has to be CNN only, even if the people in the waiting room request FOX. The second is the attack on religious freedom. Read the forward to James Keller "Just for Today" written in 1956. It describes what the communists were doing to control minds in 1956 and what our government is doing today. Am I nuts? Yes I am nuts for freedom. patarick on 9/3/2014 8:15:51 AM |
| Worse. Mostly sad that my grand kids are facing such obstacles as higher taxes, higher prices, lower paying jobs. For myself, it is a matter of will money run out during future retirement. james on 9/3/2014 9:22:07 AM |
| I'm 77 y/o and thought I'd saved plenty to get me to demise. Retired in 1998 and now I'm not at all sure. Morris Brill on 9/3/2014 10:10:19 AM |
| WORSE! This Pres is turning out to be much worse then I thought he would be! He is working on his goal to ruin America. He will NOT win! Vince Lorenz on 9/3/2014 10:11:26 AM |
| I feel better about my personal situation as my success is predicated on my own abilities and achievement. I feel worse about the direction of policies and philosophies that run our country and our economic environment. Rather than helping the "have nots" reposition themselves to gain the satisfaction and confidence on achieving something, policies allow for confisicating from the "haves" and redistributing. This creates resentment and class warfare. This is one of the reasons for such a low approval rating of Congress. Scott on 9/3/2014 10:14:47 AM |
| Charles: If we do not reform Medicare, Medicaid, Obama care, and Social Security, future looks grim. There are ways to do this, but a lot of people are not willing to lessen their share of the pie. Frances Wiggins on 9/3/2014 10:25:13 AM |
| Worse. A our country cannot survive and thrive without a backbone. Unless we grow one soon we will be stuck in a wheelchair unable to fully accomplish the work of our country. Michael Clemens on 9/3/2014 10:26:30 AM |
| I own a medium size business in S. California, it still feels like a recession to me, worse! Ralph Ralph on 9/3/2014 10:31:01 AM |
| In a word or two......in Limbo. Financial future of country looks shaky, Political leadership looks disengaged from reality, personal freedom has gone to a whole new level of disregard for others and all about "ME" JAH on 9/3/2014 10:36:11 AM |
| I have a small marketing & PR agency, 31 years old and 2 other very small online ventures. I have been treading water since '08 and have sold my family home to keep afloat. I see no strengthening in any of the sectors I do business in nor in any of the industries our agency serves. Everyone is scared to let go of the dollar they may have. In fact, I see mistakes being made in that fear - not promoting their business in a time when it could be most visable. I feel like So Cal got hit harder and deeper than other parts of the country. It will be a very slow crawl up with a different mindset. Patricia on 9/3/2014 10:47:48 AM |
| Am I better off now than in September 2010? No I am worse off; but what is so frightening is that THE COUNTRY IS MUCH WORSE OFF! God, please save the USA. Richard Nance on 9/3/2014 10:54:55 AM |
| worse by far judith shaw on 9/3/2014 10:59:19 AM |
| Worse Dee on 9/3/2014 11:01:31 AM |
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