Afternoon Note
Consumer confidence holds steady coming in slightly ahead of consensus at 98.5. The sentiment cooled from a 13-year high reported in October. University of Michigan survey saw expected gain of 2.7% in real consumption expenditures in 2018 which is the best run-up to the holiday shopping season in a decade. This bodes very well for our thesis that the consumer will open their wallets for holiday purchases.
Survey of Consumers |
Nov 2017 |
Oct 2017 |
Nov 2016 |
Index |
98.5 |
100.7 |
93.8 |
Current |
113.5 |
116.5 |
107.3 |
Expectations |
88.9 |
90.5 |
85.2 |
We won't have to wait long for some early sales figures with Black Friday and Cyber Monday on tap.
Oil prices gain terrain after U.S. crude weekly declined in line with expectations. The EIA reported crude supplies fell by 1.9 million barrels, much less than expected. Gasoline stockpiles were unchanged, while distillate stockpiles edged up by 300,000 barrels, consensus expected a rise of 737,000 barrels for gasoline and a decline of 1.16 million barrels for distillates.
EIA Petroleum Inventories
|
Actual |
Expected |
Crude Oil |
-1.90 million |
-2.11 million |
Gasoline |
+44,000 |
+737,000 |
Distillates |
+300,000 |
-1.16 million |
Let’s keep our powder dry. Happy Thanksgiving!
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