It was a very impressive session for stocks, which looked vulnerable on Wednesday morning, especially when the Dow Jones Industrial Average raced toward a 100-point loss. Buyers emerged; however, the Dow finished fractionally lower. The message is clear that anyone writing off the Trump Rally is making a mistake.

Of course the best action in the market was in technology with the new four horsemen of tech galloping along with supreme confidence.  But the most compelling action is in other parts of the tech world from oversold cyber security names to semiconductor names.

Consumer stocks continue to struggle; while part of it is from the demise of brick-and-mortar retailers, it has been highlighted with awful news from Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD).  It is another reason why consumer staples and discretionary companies ensure the highest effective tax rates of any S&P 500 sector.

This is why getting the rest of the Trump economic agenda is so critical:

• Tax Rates/Tax Reform
• Regulation Relief
• Infrastructure

In fact, the Business Roundtable points out how critical these initiatives are for corporate America.

Taxes

Over the past decade, $179 billion in assets were lost in global mergers and acquisitions as a more competitive corporate tax rate could have kept 1,300 companies in America.

Lower rates should also happen with a move to a territorial tax system. In other words, stop punishing companies for making money outside the United States.

Infrastructure

A “world class” infrastructure plan would cover more than roads and bridges, upgrade our ancient electric grid, and improve ways to get oil and gas supplies to the market. Beyond psychical improvements, the Business Roundtable points out that the regulatory/approval process must be sped up.

Furthermore, clearing hurdles on the American Health Care Act (AHCA) bill tonight would put an extra wind in the sails of the administration and add an extra oomph to the rally. 

Still, I think yesterday’s session suggests that even if there is near-term turmoil from failure to pass the AHCA Obamacare replacement bill, the market will gather itself and rally on the assumption that other parts of the Trump agenda will become reality in 2017.

Today’s Session

All quiet on all fronts as the street will follow rumors, tweets and official announcement regarding the potential passage of AHCA.

I interviewed Rep Louis Gohmert (TX) last night and he was adamant about the need for Republicans to deliver “full repeal” of Obamacare, and the bill, as it stands at this very moment, will not pass the Freedom Caucus.  There are many that see a last second compromise not unlike the ‘Stupak Amendment’ Nancy Pelosi got to push through Obamacare in a razor-thin 220 – 215 vote. 

The potential scenarios for the market if there is no deal tonight:

• The market sells off less than 5% with extra pressure on so-called Trump stocks
• The market sells off more than 5% as panic reflects major fears that Trump’s agenda is no longer a walk in park
• The market dips, but holds key support points, then rebounds as other parts of the agenda become the focus

I think the last scenario is most likely to happen.  Meanwhile, passage would still see questions about what happens in the Senate, but it would send the market higher with major indices moving into unchartered territory.