Afternoon Note
The markets are having the worst session since the election, but are off the worst levels of the day. I think there are a couple of issues, including the fact the Dow failed on numerous occasions to break and close above 20,000. This is a normal technical action, and it’s triggered some profit-taking.
Secondly, a third tier firm issued Sell recommendations for numerous stocks including Disney, and maybe it’s put the focus on the issue of things not working out according to the script assumed by the market. There is of course "execution risk" as the notion of the Grand Old Party sabotaging themselves, and that the new president will not be a complete shock. But hopefully, this time will be different. Last night’s Senate vote on Obamacare underscores the fact everyone is going to "play ball."
Be that as it may, this overdue pullback shifts the focus to tomorrow morning and start of the next earnings season.
On the economic front, initial jobless claims were up 10,000 to 247,000 from the November’s revised 237,000. Import prices rose 0.4% last month due to higher import fuel cost, which had the first yearly increase since 2011, up 25% in 2016 after declining 41% in 2015. This was the largest increase since 2009. While fuel cost rose, import prices for food, feed, beverages and finished goods declined. Overall, excluding oil, import prices declined 2% after a 0.1% decline in November.
Price Trends Imports |
Month/Month |
Year/Year |
Imports |
0.4% |
1.8% |
Fuel Imports |
7.3% |
25% |
Non-Fuel |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
Price Trends Exports |
Month/Month |
Year/Year |
Exports |
0.3% |
1.1% |
Agriculture |
-0.3% |
-0.5% |
Non-Agriculture |
0.4% |
1.3% |
Gold is over $1200, a 7 week high as the dollar is down sharply. The U.S. Treasury just completed its auction of $12 billion 30-year bonds at 2.914%. By the way, banks are having the worst session since this summer. Let’s hope they don’t disappoint as the 3 major banks BAC, JPM and WFC report tomorrow morning.
We are going to keep our powder dry this afternoon.
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