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Question of the Week

Is the American Dream dead and is income mobility easier in other countries? Feel free to add other observations.
Yes
No

Morning Commentary

The Late Swoon Notwithstanding

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
4/21/2016 9:35 AM

Whoa! That was a sharp haircut.  While the market closed higher and major indices continue to creep back toward all-time high levels, the Dow rally was sawed in half after peaking at 3:00.  At this point, there is sure to be heightened anxiety as the market has made a remarkable rebound.

We are seeing it even more with individual names this earning season.  There are several hoops to jump through before shares can rally higher:

There is no sympathy for currency issues, and if CEOs can’t convince analysts that things are great, shares could be hit.  On the flip side, with 74% of companies that have reported thus far beating the Street, this is the time for businesses to justify their value.  On that note, after the close Yum Brands and American Express posted results that beat the street.

Wild gyrations are part of the process if this market is making a real transition from survival mode to full blown rally.  

Land of Opportunity

These days it is fashionable to dump on the United States, which hasn’t lived up to its potential in a long time, but in my mind is still the greatest nation in the world.  Of course, greatness is in the eye of the beholder, and these days, things like work-life balance matter more than actual wealth and job creation.

Earlier this month, Federal Reserve official William Dudley jumped in on the act saying the American Dream is easier to attain in Demark and Canada.  I’m calling foul (although thinking different words.)

I know America is in a rut, and wages are drifting, while good jobs are being replaced by part-time jobs, but there are still unlimited success stories.  Name any innovative company changing the way we work and live, and overwhelmingly it’s based in the United States.   Numbers in key areas that reflect or enable mobility belie the notion that Denmark is the place to climb the ladder. 

Ladder of Success

America

Demark

Millionaires Per Households

4.5%

1.7%

Best Country for Start-Ups

#3

#5

Tax Rate

39.6%

55.8%

 

America has its issues including a sense of defeat and growing self-doubt driven by failure of leadership in big government, big organizations and big lies. 

The notion that a member of the Federal Reserve could actually fall for the malarkey is more than odd. It is actually somewhat offensive considering their handiwork has done nothing for the American Dream.   The Fed took their balance sheet from $870 billion to $4.4 trillion in seven years. They bailed out banks by purchasing toxic assets and enabled profligate government spending by buying US treasuries. 

Today’s Session

Lots of earnings, lowest initial jobless claims since 1973, and the ECB promising to keep rates at current levels or lower have only cast confusion over the start of this morning’s session. 

 


Comments
No the dream is still there but harder to reach. Regulations and taxes have made it harder to find the nich

Tom on 4/21/2016 7:48:59 AM
What has happened to us?

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/file/economic-freedom-of-the-world-2015-infographicjpg

Dan Knudson on 4/21/2016 9:54:41 AM
The American dream will never die but it's not what it used to be either. If we don't find a way to cut this cancer of too much government, too many bureaucracies and too little adherence to the Constitution, the socialists in this country will destroy the nation.

Patricia Hampton on 4/21/2016 9:56:05 AM
The American Dream is not dead, however the work ethic to achieve the dream is in dire need of resuscitation.

Tom Schaefer on 4/21/2016 10:19:59 AM
America... the land of the free and home of the brave...Yet we hear that the IRS actually targeted people with the Tea Party and the people that did so are not in prison. On another note we hear of a veteran asking iof there is a discount and being lambasted by an ignorant liberal. Fortunately a customer bought his meal! Snf for the first time in the since we began keeping a record on new business start ups did we close more businesses than start new ones. We still have opportunity but running a business today feels light trying to run a 40 yard sprint with ankle weights on. Between all the taxes, massive government debt, government regulations that stifle business and political correctness, the light has dimmed considerably. Maybe the country will wake up and get involved and change the direction we are headed in I hope!

Ray Weldon on 4/21/2016 10:31:57 AM
The American Dream is not quite dead, but it is on life support. Upward mobility is still possible for disciplined people who really apply themselves to developing marketable skills, but the job market generally is far more tenuous than it was when I was young. Back then, personal skills were in great demand; today, we are all married to computers. In the ad business during the Madmen era, it took a team of 10 or 15 people to create one ad; today, anyone can do it by himself on a computer. Free trade has also made entire work forces fungible. Just outsource all the production to a cheap labor market overseas. The only people with protection are those who need a license from the state to operate locally; in other words, lawyers, manicurists, liquor store owners, healthcare workers, plumbers. But even auto mechanics have to run to keep up with technology; and who knows, any day now, we won't even need them. The day of the self-driving, throwaway car is not far off. The problem is: it means a world where political demogogues can thrive on the vulnerability of the ordinary middle income worker. Juan and Eva Peron would love it. But, what the heck, we've got Bill and Hillary.

Dennis Howard on 4/21/2016 10:36:44 AM
The American Dream is alive for those who get a good education in one of the STEM fields. The American Dream is dead for high school drop-outs and high school grads that are not ready to gain trade skills, such as plumber, electrition, carpenter, auto/diesel mechanic, etc.

Tim on 4/21/2016 11:30:03 AM
The American Dream is more alive than ever to me. If you think you can achieve the American Dream at a job, then you are experiencing the American nightmare. Once you find your niche the dream begins and most entrepreneurs will quit before they achieve. I kinda like that aspect of it all...

Azim Ross on 4/21/2016 11:42:53 AM
On Federal Reserve official William Dudley saying that the American Dream is easier to achieve in Canada and Denmark....I am from Canada and I made my home in the USA in 1998. William Dudley must be either stupid or ignorant or both. He has obviously never been to Canada or tried to raise a family or work there. It is far easier to make a living in the USA. Let's start with the standard of living. The USA has far higher purchasing power for goods and services than in Canada for starters. Home mortgages are cheaper and the terms are far better in the USA.(30yr term vs 25 in Canada; interest rates locked in for 30 years vs 5 year term in Canada; no early payout penalties in the USA). I could go on and on with other examples. Here is the kicker though. When I moved here in '98, there was a real feeling of "freedom". There wasn't a government breathing down my neck with regulations about everything. I found that I was rewarded more for effort and ability here. When applying for a job, I found that employers were more interested in what I had done and accomplished and the number of degrees I held seemed took a back seat to effort. Believe me, the USA is a fantastic country. My main worry is that we are slipping into the crap pile of high taxes, government over-reach, entitlements that Canada is presently mired in. We need to protect ourselves from that. We need to be very vigilant and hold our politicians accountable to keep The Dream alive. Our Constitutional values are our biggest asset that we must ensure are upheld. The USA is still the best country in the world to live and make something of oneself though and I am honoured to be given the opportunity to live here and become a citizen.

Doug on 4/21/2016 11:53:07 AM
My daughter attended her 25th year high-school reunion. 38% were unemployed. Half of them had never had a job which could be described as long-term. My daughter's taxes are supporting these people, and that is why it is tough to get ahead.

z on 4/21/2016 12:11:27 PM
The beauty of this country is that ever 4 or 8 years we have the chance to get it right again and allow the free market to work. It just seems like it's tougher and tougher to find free market politicians and voters. But after a while folks wake up and find the current course can be adjusted and we look to return to the days of Reagan. We're almost there now.

Gene on 4/21/2016 12:23:29 PM
The problem today is too many people do not want to work for the upper mobility the culture has shifted to an entitlement society. 30 years ago you were admired for income mobility today you are a demon.

George on 4/21/2016 1:01:42 PM
Kudos to Doug! First thank you for your insight and wisdom, which is spot on. Second I'd like to point out he's an immigrant, smart, hard working and legal, Welcome Doug and thanks for coming to the USA!

Brent on 4/21/2016 1:15:38 PM
Hopefully our country will only improve when this administration is out of office and we have a new President, Trump is different but I am of the mind he may be the one to get rid of the crony, Paul Ryan, Mitch Mcconel, many if not all the Democrats, it will take at least 10 to 20 years. Our country is in the worst financial shape in 60 years, I was born in 1930

Audrey T. Gallagher on 4/21/2016 2:19:40 PM
You chose not to make a comparison with Canada where effective tax rates are lower and start ups are relatively easy. Millionaires may be fewer except in Vancouver and Toronto where houses average above one million making for many illiquid millionaires.

Don Selman on 4/21/2016 2:40:22 PM
Charles, Love your comments! You are a beacon of light in a sea of darkness.

Mac Ward on 4/21/2016 2:40:55 PM
The American Dream is still alive and thriving. We, especially the young, need to be reminded that it is not an entitlement. It takes more than learning how to tweak a few forms.

Patricia Flynn on 4/21/2016 4:07:35 PM
As long as leftists are allowed to make words mean whatever they want them to mean, with no actual rigorous definitions, they will win.

Another issue is that the USA's tax structure puts us about #32 in the world. So there are 31 countries which are more advantageous for having a business. Visit tax foundation.com

We need for folks like Charles to advertise that our Federal government takes in $5 billion daily in taxes but spends $10 billion per day. [Check for the actual $, as my numbers are a few years old.]

Social Security and Medicare are not entitlements, but rather have their own tax structures that generate income. HOWEVER, they are both BADLY managed. My preference is for something like the Galveston County Plan to replace Social Security [at one time, competing plans were permitted; Galveston County pays three times as much as Social Security.] And Indiana and other places have used HSA's and catastrophic medical insurance. Check out hospitals that accept cash in place of insurance [cash pay plans result in 90% discounts better than insurance plans.]

There are many ways to get rid of Socialist inroads, but you need to be very very articulate.

Keep up the great work, Charles.

Al M. on 4/21/2016 4:25:07 PM
One more Obama (Clinton) term, and the resulting Supreme Court nominations will send us down the same path that Venezuela recently traveled.

El Zorro Oro on 4/21/2016 5:59:41 PM
Yea Doug,

The effect on the economy by the attack on small business by the Obama administration cannot be underestimated. Small business is hated by the central planners (e.g., socialists, commune-ists, etc) because it creates great wealth (through hard work) and independence.

El Zorro Oro on 4/21/2016 6:06:00 PM
No it is not finish but: This is a big but, you have to have skills, just not any skills, marketable skills especially programing skills.
The days you showed up and work as a laborer and work your way up are over, or at least much more difficult.

Philippe on 4/21/2016 10:15:42 PM
Life is always what you make of it. There will always be folks who want to just be victims, and they are to be pitied. Every decision we make in our lives results in the outcome we get, for the most part. Certainly there are the unanticipated disasters in life of injury, illness, business losses, crime, etc. In my opinion, God is a practical joker, and throws such catastrophies at us to see what we will do with ourselves. Life isn't perfect, but we do need to defend our freedoms from the totalitarian goals of the global collectivist elites.

Daria Schooler on 4/22/2016 11:37:20 AM
Self employed physicians like me have been crushed by government regulations and their crony insurance payors, medicare, and vendors for services mandated by government (eg. electronic health records). Obamacare was the final straw for shutting down independent physicians trying to get paid from third party insurance and government. Fortunately, physicians in ambulatory settings, such as primary care, dermatology, and consulting, can go completely on a cash basis and provide affordable care to their patients. That was not an option for me as a neurosurgeon. Even if my fees are low, hospital charges for surgery are astronomical. I'll never regret my career choice, nor will I regret being CEO of my own solo practice, even though I had to retire with a capital loss due to overhead exceeding reimbursement over the past several years.
I do recommend everyone check out medicalselfsufficiency.com to see how one can save money on their own health care expenses and avoid the insurance trap. Health savings accounts should be expanded to $10,000 per year tax deductible deposits. The more people use their own money to get health care, the more competative the pricing for routine care, lab tests, and prescriptions will become.

Daria Schooler on 4/22/2016 11:53:46 AM
great commentary on Tv and on your website

Joseph DeFazio on 4/26/2016 7:06:29 PM
Because when Donald Trump becomes President the dream is coming back...he'll bring the change we can believe in,

RFC on 5/3/2016 2:18:42 PM
Brother, "The American Dream" has been and will always be available for the one who is not worried about failing! At the age of 63 my American Dream is just now being fulfilled after failing umpteen times. But, I never gave up and never quit striving to accomplish my goals that led to my Dream! Thank God He never gave up on me!!!

Michael Hooker on 5/5/2016 6:56:35 PM
 

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